The CFP race

8Oregon8–188%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Notre Dame7–298%

→

1Indiana10–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia8–1>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12James Madison8–156%

→

4Alabama8–1>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas Tech9–195%

First round · at the 6 seed

11South Florida7–243%

→

3Texas A&M9–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss9–199%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Texas7–258%

→

2Ohio State9–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#10Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +30pp58%

James Madison8–1 · Sun Belt▼ −9pp56%

#24South Florida7–2 · American Athletic▲ +35pp43%

SMU7–3 · ACC▲ +15pp29%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 12▼ −6pp25%

#16Georgia Tech8–1 · ACC▲ +8pp19%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▼ −6pp18%

#11Oklahoma7–2 · SEC▲ +8pp17%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12).