The CFP race

8Ole Miss9–174%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Texas7–248%

→

1Ohio State9–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia8–182%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Oklahoma7–239%

→

4Alabama8–187%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas Tech9–181%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame7–270%

→

3Texas A&M9–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon8–165%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Utah7–246%

→

2Indiana10–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#5Georgia8–1 · SEC▼ −2pp82%

#6Texas Tech9–1 · Big 12▲ +12pp81%

#7Ole Miss9–1 · SEC▼ −3pp74%

#9Notre Dame7–2 · FBS Independents▼ −2pp70%

#8Oregon8–1 · Big Ten▼ −3pp65%

#10Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +7pp48%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 1246%

#11Oklahoma7–2 · SEC▲ +7pp39%

James Madison8–1 · Sun Belt35%

#24South Florida7–2 · American Athletic▲ +19pp33%

#12BYU8–1 · Big 12▼ −19pp30%

#14Vanderbilt8–2 · SEC▲ +17pp27%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▲ +4pp25%

#15Miami7–2 · ACC▲ +13pp25%

SMU7–3 · ACC▲ +12pp23%

#16Georgia Tech8–1 · ACC▲ +7pp20%

…

… · ABC

#9Notre Dameat#22Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 Pittsburgh

…

… · ABC

#10Texasat#5Georgia

Final · Texas 10–35 Georgia

…

… · ESPN

Floridaat#7Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole Miss

…

… · ABC

#11Oklahomaat#4Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 Alabama

…

… · ESPN2

#13UtahatBaylor

Final · Utah 55–28 Baylor

…

… · ESPN2

#24South FloridaatNavy

Final · South Florida 38–41 Navy

…

… · ESPN2

#19VirginiaatDuke

Final · Virginia 34–17 Duke

…

… · ESPN

TCUat#12BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYU

…

… · BTN

#21Iowaat#17USC

Final · Iowa 21–26 USC

…

… · FOX

Minnesotaat#8Oregon

Final · Minnesota 13–42 Oregon

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.