The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 1 · 2026

13 teams on the bubble entering week 1.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

…

… · ABC

Louisville at Ole Miss

Ole Miss 73%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±27pp Louisville ±4pp Iowa ±4pp Penn State ±3pp

54 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Marshall at Penn State

Penn State 93%

Who cares:Penn State ±31pp Ole Miss ±5pp Alabama ±4pp Iowa ±3pp

56 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ESPN

Miami at Stanford

Miami 92%

Who cares:Miami ±30pp SMU ±8pp South Florida ±4pp Louisville ±3pp

51 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ABC

East Carolina at Alabama

Alabama 87%

Who cares:Alabama ±20pp Iowa ±4pp Penn State ±3pp Texas ±2pp

34 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Northern Illinois at Iowa

Iowa 97%

Who cares:Iowa ±28pp Utah ±4pp Vanderbilt ±3pp

35 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ESPN

SMU at Florida State

SMU 73%

Who cares:SMU ±17pp Miami ±2pp South Florida ±2pp Clemson ±1pp

25 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Texas State at Texas

Texas 87%

Who cares:Texas ±15pp Penn State ±3pp Utah ±2pp Miami ±2pp

22 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI SEP 4

Fresno State at USC

USC 89%

Who cares:USC ±14pp Miami ±2pp Penn State ±2pp James Madison ±2pp

22 ppplayoff odds in play

…

… · ABC

Clemson at LSU

LSU 51%

Who cares:Clemson ±3pp

3 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Tulane at Duke

Duke 58%

Who cares:Tulane ±2pp

2 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.