The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

…

… · ESPN

MiamiatStanford

Miami 88%

Rooting for

MiamiMiami

MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 57.9%If Stanford wins: 35.5%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Miami wins: 42.5%If Stanford wins: 41.8%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Miami wins: 35.2%If Stanford wins: 34.4%

Rooting for

StanfordStanford

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Stanford wins: 27.6%If Miami wins: 22.5%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Stanford wins: 14.1%If Miami wins: 10.6%ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If Stanford wins: 11.2%If Miami wins: 8.4%

…

… · ESPN

SMUatFlorida State

SMU 64%

Rooting for

SMUSMU

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If SMU wins: 29%If Florida State wins: 12.5%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If SMU wins: 43.8%If Florida State wins: 42.9%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If SMU wins: 12.6%If Florida State wins: 12.2%

Rooting for

Florida StateFSU

MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Florida State wins: 58.4%If SMU wins: 53.5%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If Florida State wins: 16.9%If SMU wins: 15.9%ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If Florida State wins: 9.4%If SMU wins: 8.3%

…

… · ABC

LouisvilleatOle Miss

Ole Miss 79%

Rooting for

LouisvilleLouisville

LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Louisville wins: 15.2%If Ole Miss wins: 10%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Louisville wins: 47.8%If Ole Miss wins: 45%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Louisville wins: 71.5%If Ole Miss wins: 70.1%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 64.9%If Louisville wins: 48.5%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Ole Miss wins: 73.1%If Louisville wins: 72.4%Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Ole Miss wins: 3.9%If Louisville wins: 3.3%

…

… · ESPN

NC StateatVirginia

Virginia 53%

Rooting for

NC StateNC State

NC StateCurrent playoff chance: 3%If NC State wins: 5%If Virginia wins: 1.2%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If NC State wins: 55.8%If Virginia wins: 54.7%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If NC State wins: 70.9%If Virginia wins: 70%

Rooting for

VirginiaVirginia

VirginiaCurrent playoff chance: 3.2%If Virginia wins: 5.1%If NC State wins: 1.2%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Virginia wins: 43.9%If NC State wins: 43%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Virginia wins: 73.3%If NC State wins: 72.5%

…

… · ABC

East CarolinaatAlabama

Alabama 89%

Rooting for

East CarolinaECU

East CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 3.1%If East Carolina wins: 5.1%If Alabama wins: 2.8%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If East Carolina wins: 72.4%If Alabama wins: 70.2%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If East Carolina wins: 63.1%If Alabama wins: 61.2%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 30.6%If East Carolina wins: 18.7%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Alabama wins: 35.3%If East Carolina wins: 33.6%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Alabama wins: 20.4%If East Carolina wins: 19.5%

…

… · ABC

ClemsonatLSU

LSU 63%

Rooting for

ClemsonClemson

ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If Clemson wins: 11.6%If LSU wins: 7.1%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Clemson wins: 55.8%If LSU wins: 54.9%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Clemson wins: 35.5%If LSU wins: 34.8%

Rooting for

LSULSU

LSUCurrent playoff chance: 5.9%If LSU wins: 7.3%If Clemson wins: 3.4%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If LSU wins: 32%If Clemson wins: 30.8%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If LSU wins: 61.8%If Clemson wins: 60.8%

TBD

SAT SEP 5

UNLVatHawai'i

UNLV 53%

Rooting for

UNLVUNLV

UNLVCurrent playoff chance: 3%If UNLV wins: 4.3%If Hawai'i wins: 1.6%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If UNLV wins: 56%If Hawai'i wins: 54.3%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If UNLV wins: 29.5%If Hawai'i wins: 28.9%

Rooting for

Hawai'iHawai'i

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Hawai'i wins: 23.7%If UNLV wins: 22.7%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Hawai'i wins: 31.9%If UNLV wins: 31.2%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If Hawai'i wins: 16.6%If UNLV wins: 16%

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Boise StateatOregon

Oregon 94%

Rooting for

Boise StateBoise State

Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Boise State wins: 7%If Oregon wins: 3.5%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Boise State wins: 42.8%If Oregon wins: 40.7%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Boise State wins: 31.1%If Oregon wins: 29.1%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 71.5%If Boise State wins: 54.8%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Oregon wins: 23.8%If Boise State wins: 22.2%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Oregon wins: 36%If Boise State wins: 34.9%

TBD

FRI SEP 4

Fresno StateatUSC

USC 89%

Rooting for

Fresno StateFresno State

Fresno StateCurrent playoff chance: 1.9%If Fresno State wins: 3.9%If USC wins: 1.6%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Fresno State wins: 57%If USC wins: 55%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Fresno State wins: 63%If USC wins: 61.2%

Rooting for

USCUSC

USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 24.9%If Fresno State wins: 13.9%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If USC wins: 36.1%If Fresno State wins: 34.8%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If USC wins: 80%If Fresno State wins: 78.8%

TBD

SAT SEP 5

Texas StateatTexas

Texas 90%

Rooting for

Texas StateTexas State

Texas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.4%If Texas State wins: 7.7%If Texas wins: 4%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Texas State wins: 72.3%If Texas wins: 70.2%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Texas State wins: 47%If Texas wins: 45.5%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 43.6%If Texas State wins: 31.4%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Texas wins: 79.9%If Texas State wins: 79.2%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Texas wins: 36%If Texas State wins: 35.4%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.