The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

…

… · ABC

Ohio StateatTexas

Ohio State 54%

Rooting for

Ohio StateOhio State

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 86%If Texas wins: 72.5%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Ohio State wins: 41.8%If Texas wins: 39.6%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Ohio State wins: 24.6%If Texas wins: 22.6%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 50.8%If Ohio State wins: 35.4%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Texas wins: 62.2%If Ohio State wins: 60.8%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Texas wins: 73.6%If Ohio State wins: 72.4%

…

… · FOX

OklahomaatMichigan

Michigan 56%

Rooting for

OklahomaOklahoma

OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 26.7%If Michigan wins: 15.3%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Oklahoma wins: 43.1%If Michigan wins: 41.9%

Rooting for

MichiganMichigan

MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Michigan wins: 14.5%If Oklahoma wins: 6.7%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Michigan wins: 46.5%If Oklahoma wins: 44.5%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Michigan wins: 41.6%If Oklahoma wins: 39.8%

…

… · CBSSN

South FloridaatArmy

South Florida 55%

Rooting for

South FloridaUSF

South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If South Florida wins: 22.4%If Army wins: 8.8%

Rooting for

ArmyArmy

ArmyCurrent playoff chance: 3.1%If Army wins: 5.2%If South Florida wins: 1.4%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Army wins: 37.3%If South Florida wins: 34.8%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If Army wins: 10%If South Florida wins: 8.7%

…

… · NBC

Iowa StateatIowa

Iowa 86%

Rooting for

Iowa StateIowa State

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Iowa State wins: 63.3%If Iowa wins: 61.1%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Iowa State wins: 45.2%If Iowa wins: 43.2%Iowa StateCurrent playoff chance: 2.4%If Iowa State wins: 4.1%If Iowa wins: 2.1%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 43.1%If Iowa State wins: 27.2%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Iowa wins: 80.1%If Iowa State wins: 78.1%

…

… · ESPN

ArkansasatUtah

Utah 82%

Rooting for

ArkansasArkansas

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Arkansas wins: 37.8%If Utah wins: 34.5%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Arkansas wins: 33.1%If Utah wins: 31.2%ArkansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Arkansas wins: 2.7%If Utah wins: 1.1%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 45.7%If Arkansas wins: 33.1%

…

… · The CW Network

UTSAatTexas State

Texas State 57%

Rooting for

UTSAUTSA

UTSACurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If UTSA wins: 10.3%If Texas State wins: 5.3%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If UTSA wins: 43.1%If Texas State wins: 41.9%

Rooting for

Texas StateTexas State

Texas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.4%If Texas State wins: 5.8%If UTSA wins: 2.5%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas State wins: 32%If UTSA wins: 30.9%

…

… · ABC

AlabamaatKentucky

Alabama 71%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 32.7%If Kentucky wins: 20.5%

Rooting for

KentuckyKentucky

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Kentucky wins: 41.9%If Alabama wins: 40.4%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Kentucky wins: 46.7%If Alabama wins: 45.2%

…

… · ESPN

TennesseeatGeorgia Tech

Tennessee 65%

Rooting for

TennesseeTennessee

TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 20.2%If Georgia Tech wins: 11.6%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Tennessee wins: 29.7%If Georgia Tech wins: 28.3%

Rooting for

Georgia TechGeorgia Tech

WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Georgia Tech wins: 23.3%If Tennessee wins: 22.1%Georgia TechCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Georgia Tech wins: 2.1%If Tennessee wins: 1%

…

… · FOX

ArizonaatBYU

BYU 66%

Rooting for

ArizonaArizona

ArizonaCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Arizona wins: 6.6%If BYU wins: 2.4%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Arizona wins: 67.6%If BYU wins: 66.1%

Rooting for

BYUBYU

BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If BYU wins: 10.5%If Arizona wins: 3.4%

…

… · ESPN2

Penn StateatTemple

Penn State 94%

Rooting for

Penn StatePenn State

Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 46.7%If Temple wins: 28.5%

Rooting for

TempleTemple

OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Temple wins: 22.5%If Penn State wins: 20.1%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Temple wins: 75%If Penn State wins: 72.8%VirginiaCurrent playoff chance: 3.2%If Temple wins: 4.2%If Penn State wins: 3.2%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.