The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 15 · 2026
Week 15 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 15.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
→
4
Georgia0–073%
Georgia0–073%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
→
3
Ohio State0–080%
Ohio State0–080%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
→
2
Notre Dame0–099%
Notre Dame0–099%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 15, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.