🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 4 · 2026
Week 4 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 4.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
…
…
TexasatTennessee
Texas 51%
Rooting for
Texas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 51.1%If Tennessee wins: 33.4%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Texas wins: 62.1%If Tennessee wins: 60.7%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 22.9%If Texas wins: 11.6%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Tennessee wins: 30.4%If Texas wins: 28.1%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Tennessee wins: 35.8%If Texas wins: 34.4%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
James MadisonatOld Dominion
James Madison 59%
Rooting for
James Madison
James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 45.4%If Old Dominion wins: 22.4%
Rooting for
Old Dominion
Old DominionCurrent playoff chance: 5.4%If Old Dominion wins: 9.4%If James Madison wins: 2.6%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If Old Dominion wins: 17.7%If James Madison wins: 15.3%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If Old Dominion wins: 10.2%If James Madison wins: 8.7%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
OregonatUSC
Oregon 56%
Rooting for
Oregon
OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 78.5%If USC wins: 60.3%
Rooting for
USC
USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 33.1%If Oregon wins: 16.3%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
IowaatMichigan
Iowa 52%
Rooting for
Iowa
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 49.7%If Michigan wins: 31.1%
Rooting for
Michigan
MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Michigan wins: 15.8%If Iowa wins: 6.7%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Michigan wins: 46.7%If Iowa wins: 44.6%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Michigan wins: 71.1%If Iowa wins: 69.8%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
UtahatIowa State
Utah 68%
Rooting for
Utah
UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 50.3%If Iowa State wins: 28.8%
Rooting for
Iowa State
Iowa StateCurrent playoff chance: 2.4%If Iowa State wins: 5.5%If Utah wins: 1%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Iowa State wins: 68.6%If Utah wins: 65.6%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Iowa State wins: 9.2%If Utah wins: 7.7%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
OklahomaatGeorgia
Georgia 79%
Rooting for
Oklahoma
OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 30.8%If Georgia wins: 17.5%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Oklahoma wins: 44.1%If Georgia wins: 42%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Oklahoma wins: 32.8%If Georgia wins: 31.2%
Rooting for
Georgia
GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 76.4%If Oklahoma wins: 59.9%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Texas A&MatLSU
Texas A&M 56%
Rooting for
Texas A&M
Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 38.4%If LSU wins: 22.9%
Rooting for
LSU
LSUCurrent playoff chance: 5.9%If LSU wins: 8.8%If Texas A&M wins: 3.5%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If LSU wins: 46.8%If Texas A&M wins: 44.8%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If LSU wins: 35.7%If Texas A&M wins: 34.6%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
VanderbiltatAuburn
Vanderbilt 57%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 41.8%If Auburn wins: 26.2%
Rooting for
Auburn
AuburnCurrent playoff chance: 4.8%If Auburn wins: 7.4%If Vanderbilt wins: 2.8%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Auburn wins: 41.6%If Vanderbilt wins: 40.2%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Auburn wins: 55.9%If Vanderbilt wins: 54.7%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
Ole MissatFlorida
Ole Miss 73%
Rooting for
Ole Miss
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 66.2%If Florida wins: 48%
Rooting for
Florida
FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If Florida wins: 4%If Ole Miss wins: 1.4%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Florida wins: 74.1%If Ole Miss wins: 72.6%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Florida wins: 23.6%If Ole Miss wins: 22.2%
TBD
SAT SEP 26
South CarolinaatAlabama
Alabama 73%
Rooting for
South Carolina
South CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 7.8%If South Carolina wins: 13%If Alabama wins: 5.9%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 33.1%If South Carolina wins: 18.6%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.