The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

Week 4 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 4.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Iowa 54%

Who cares:Iowa ±32pp Utah ±4pp Michigan ±4pp Ole Miss ±3pp

60 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Utah at Iowa State

Utah 76%

Who cares:Utah ±31pp Ole Miss ±4pp Alabama ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

57 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

James Madison at Old Dominion

James Madison 73%

Who cares:James Madison ±30pp South Florida ±8pp North Texas ±6pp Old Dominion ±4pp

54 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Penn State 92%

Who cares:Penn State ±32pp Iowa ±5pp Alabama ±4pp Utah ±4pp

60 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas at Tennessee

Texas 52%

Who cares:Texas ±23pp Tennessee ±6pp Iowa ±2pp Penn State ±2pp

44 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Ole Miss at Florida

Ole Miss 79%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±29pp Iowa ±4pp Penn State ±4pp Vanderbilt ±3pp

53 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Oregon 63%

Who cares:USC ±22pp Penn State ±5pp Utah ±3pp Iowa ±3pp

44 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

South Carolina at Alabama

Alabama 80%

Who cares:Alabama ±23pp Iowa ±3pp Utah ±3pp South Carolina ±2pp

42 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Texas A&M at LSU

Texas A&M 62%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±16pp Iowa ±2pp Alabama ±2pp Utah ±2pp

28 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Vanderbilt 65%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±17pp Alabama ±2pp Ole Miss ±2pp Utah ±2pp

28 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.