🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 13 · 2026
Week 13 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 13.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
…
… · ABC
TexasatTexas A&M
Texas A&M 57%
Rooting for
Texas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 63.6%If Texas A&M wins: 26.2%
Rooting for
Texas A&M
Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 45.2%If Texas wins: 13.8%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Texas A&M wins: 61.9%If Texas wins: 60.8%
TBD
SAT NOV 28
WashingtonatOregon
Oregon 77%
Rooting for
Washington
WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 49%If Oregon wins: 14.4%
Rooting for
Oregon
OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 79.5%If Washington wins: 40.9%
TBD
SAT NOV 28
TennesseeatVanderbilt
Vanderbilt 69%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 35.7%If Vanderbilt wins: 8.7%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.2%If Tennessee wins: 12.9%
…
… · FOX
MichiganatOhio State
Ohio State 85%
Rooting for
Michigan
MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Michigan wins: 32.8%If Ohio State wins: 7.1%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Michigan wins: 25.1%If Ohio State wins: 23.4%
Rooting for
Ohio State
Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 85.1%If Michigan wins: 51.1%
TBD
SAT NOV 28
Penn StateatMaryland
Penn State 83%
Rooting for
Penn State
Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 51.6%If Maryland wins: 17.3%
Rooting for
Maryland
OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Maryland wins: 73%If Penn State wins: 69.9%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Maryland wins: 31.3%If Penn State wins: 28.8%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Maryland wins: 37.1%If Penn State wins: 34.6%
…
… · ESPN
TCUatTexas Tech
Texas Tech 86%
Rooting for
TCU
TCUCurrent playoff chance: 3.3%If TCU wins: 11.7%If Texas Tech wins: 1.9%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If TCU wins: 46.6%If Texas Tech wins: 43%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If TCU wins: 63.2%If Texas Tech wins: 61.1%
Rooting for
Texas Tech
Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 71.3%If TCU wins: 37.5%
TBD
SAT NOV 28
OklahomaatMissouri
Missouri 57%
Rooting for
Oklahoma
OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 34.7%If Missouri wins: 9.2%
Rooting for
Missouri
MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Missouri wins: 19.4%If Oklahoma wins: 3.3%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Missouri wins: 61.9%If Oklahoma wins: 60.8%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Missouri wins: 35.6%If Oklahoma wins: 34.5%
…
… · CBS
NebraskaatIowa
Iowa 86%
Rooting for
Nebraska
NebraskaCurrent playoff chance: 0.7%If Nebraska wins: 3.6%If Iowa wins: 0.2%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Nebraska wins: 33.7%If Iowa wins: 31.2%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Nebraska wins: 25.7%If Iowa wins: 23.4%
Rooting for
Iowa
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 45.3%If Nebraska wins: 13.9%
…
… · ABC
Mississippi StateatOle Miss
Ole Miss 92%
Rooting for
Mississippi State
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Mississippi State wins: 43.1%If Ole Miss wins: 40.6%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Mississippi State wins: 44.6%If Ole Miss wins: 42.2%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Mississippi State wins: 25.6%If Ole Miss wins: 23.5%
Rooting for
Ole Miss
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 64.3%If Mississippi State wins: 30.5%
TBD
SAT NOV 28
AuburnatAlabama
Alabama 75%
Rooting for
Auburn
AuburnCurrent playoff chance: 4.8%If Auburn wins: 13.9%If Alabama wins: 1.8%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Auburn wins: 46.9%If Alabama wins: 45.2%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Auburn wins: 71.4%If Alabama wins: 70.1%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 35.6%If Auburn wins: 9.8%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.