The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Penn StateatWashington

Washington 54%

Rooting for

Penn StatePenn State

Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 63.4%If Washington wins: 30.2%

Rooting for

WashingtonWashington

WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 32.2%If Penn State wins: 11.4%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Washington wins: 71.9%If Penn State wins: 68.8%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Washington wins: 44.1%If Penn State wins: 42.7%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

GeorgiaatOle Miss

Ole Miss 57%

Rooting for

GeorgiaGeorgia

GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 86.5%If Ole Miss wins: 62.9%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Georgia wins: 13.1%If Ole Miss wins: 11.9%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Georgia wins: 23.7%If Ole Miss wins: 22.7%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 74.6%If Georgia wins: 43.8%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Ole Miss wins: 20.9%If Georgia wins: 19.5%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

TexasatMissouri

Texas 54%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 54.9%If Missouri wins: 27.8%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas wins: 32.4%If Missouri wins: 30.6%

Rooting for

MissouriMissouri

MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Missouri wins: 20.5%If Texas wins: 5.5%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Missouri wins: 21.4%If Texas wins: 19.3%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Missouri wins: 73.9%If Texas wins: 72.2%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

IowaatNorthwestern

Iowa 69%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 50.1%If Northwestern wins: 20%

Rooting for

NorthwesternNorthwestern

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Northwestern wins: 81.6%If Iowa wins: 79%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Northwestern wins: 74.5%If Iowa wins: 72.3%NorthwesternCurrent playoff chance: 0.9%If Northwestern wins: 2.2%If Iowa wins: 0.3%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

AlabamaatLSU

Alabama 55%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 41%If LSU wins: 15.1%

Rooting for

LSULSU

LSUCurrent playoff chance: 5.9%If LSU wins: 10.2%If Alabama wins: 2.3%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If LSU wins: 44.1%If Alabama wins: 41.1%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If LSU wins: 18.5%If Alabama wins: 16.1%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

OregonatOhio State

Ohio State 67%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 86.5%If Ohio State wins: 62.4%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Oregon wins: 24%If Ohio State wins: 21.8%

Rooting for

Ohio StateOhio State

Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 87.7%If Oregon wins: 64.3%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Ohio State wins: 29.6%If Oregon wins: 28.5%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

Texas A&MatSouth Carolina

Texas A&M 54%

Rooting for

Texas A&MTexas A&M

Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 42.4%If South Carolina wins: 18.7%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Texas A&M wins: 20.9%If South Carolina wins: 19.6%

Rooting for

South CarolinaSC

South CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 7.8%If South Carolina wins: 13.2%If Texas A&M wins: 3.2%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If South Carolina wins: 74.2%If Texas A&M wins: 71.9%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If South Carolina wins: 80.6%If Texas A&M wins: 79.2%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

BYUatUtah

Utah 78%

Rooting for

BYUBYU

BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If BYU wins: 19.8%If Utah wins: 4.8%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If BYU wins: 68.3%If Utah wins: 66.1%

Rooting for

UtahUtah

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 49.6%If BYU wins: 22.2%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

OklahomaatFlorida

Oklahoma 58%

Rooting for

OklahomaOklahoma

OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 27.6%If Florida wins: 10.2%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Oklahoma wins: 62.1%If Florida wins: 60.5%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Oklahoma wins: 32%If Florida wins: 30.9%

Rooting for

FloridaFlorida

FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If Florida wins: 4%If Oklahoma wins: 0.7%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Florida wins: 36.6%If Oklahoma wins: 34%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Florida wins: 24.5%If Oklahoma wins: 23.1%

TBD

SAT NOV 7

VanderbiltatMississippi State

Vanderbilt 73%

Rooting for

VanderbiltVanderbilt

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 41.6%If Mississippi State wins: 17.3%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 29.6%If Mississippi State wins: 28.3%

Rooting for

Mississippi StateMSST

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Mississippi State wins: 64.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 60.4%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Mississippi State wins: 47.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.1%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Mississippi State wins: 32.7%If Vanderbilt wins: 31.1%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.