🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 11 · 2026
Week 11 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 11.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
TBD
SAT NOV 14
Ole MissatOklahoma
Ole Miss 56%
Rooting for
Ole Miss
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 77%If Oklahoma wins: 41.6%
Rooting for
Oklahoma
OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 32.5%If Ole Miss wins: 10.6%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Oklahoma wins: 32.9%If Ole Miss wins: 30.5%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Oklahoma wins: 13.4%If Ole Miss wins: 11.7%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
AlabamaatVanderbilt
Vanderbilt 63%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 48.6%If Vanderbilt wins: 17.8%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.4%If Alabama wins: 17.6%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 17.7%If Alabama wins: 16.2%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
TexasatLSU
Texas 60%
Rooting for
Texas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 53.9%If LSU wins: 25%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas wins: 32.3%If LSU wins: 30.4%
Rooting for
LSU
LSUCurrent playoff chance: 5.9%If LSU wins: 11.8%If Texas wins: 2%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If LSU wins: 18.7%If Texas wins: 16.1%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If LSU wins: 80.8%If Texas wins: 79.2%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
MichiganatOregon
Oregon 81%
Rooting for
Michigan
MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Michigan wins: 28.7%If Oregon wins: 7%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Michigan wins: 82.1%If Oregon wins: 79.3%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Michigan wins: 36.3%If Oregon wins: 34.8%
Rooting for
Oregon
OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 76.6%If Michigan wins: 44.2%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Oregon wins: 22.9%If Michigan wins: 21.2%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
TennesseeatTexas A&M
Texas A&M 68%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 10.3%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Tennessee wins: 36.9%If Texas A&M wins: 34.2%
Rooting for
Texas A&M
Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 39.5%If Tennessee wins: 14.9%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas A&M wins: 43.3%If Tennessee wins: 40.7%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Texas A&M wins: 20.7%If Tennessee wins: 19.3%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
UtahatArizona
Utah 64%
Rooting for
Utah
UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 54.4%If Arizona wins: 24.4%
Rooting for
Arizona
ArizonaCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Arizona wins: 8.3%If Utah wins: 1.3%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Arizona wins: 69.2%If Utah wins: 65.1%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Arizona wins: 36.2%If Utah wins: 34.5%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
MissouriatGeorgia
Georgia 82%
Rooting for
Missouri
MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Missouri wins: 30.3%If Georgia wins: 8.5%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Missouri wins: 22.3%If Georgia wins: 19.8%
Rooting for
Georgia
GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 78.4%If Missouri wins: 47.7%
…
… · CBSSN
James MadisonatUConn
James Madison 51%
Rooting for
James Madison
James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 48.1%If UConn wins: 23.1%
Rooting for
UConn
South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If UConn wins: 18.2%If James Madison wins: 14.4%UConnCurrent playoff chance: 1.2%If UConn wins: 2.4%If James Madison wins: <0.1%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If UConn wins: 10.4%If James Madison wins: 8.3%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
DukeatMiami
Miami 86%
Rooting for
Duke
DukeCurrent playoff chance: 2%If Duke wins: 7%If Miami wins: 1.2%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Duke wins: 27.2%If Miami wins: 22.5%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Duke wins: 13.3%If Miami wins: 10.7%
Rooting for
Miami
MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 59.7%If Duke wins: 28%
TBD
SAT NOV 14
MinnesotaatPenn State
Penn State 88%
Rooting for
Minnesota
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Minnesota wins: 43%If Penn State wins: 40.5%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Minnesota wins: 31.4%If Penn State wins: 28.9%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Minnesota wins: 33.6%If Penn State wins: 31.3%
Rooting for
Penn State
Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 49.3%If Minnesota wins: 18.2%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.