The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

Week 6 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 6.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 10

USC at Penn State

Penn State 66%

Who cares:Penn State ±38pp USC ±29pp Utah ±2pp Alabama ±2pp

72 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Iowa at Washington

Iowa 55%

Who cares:Iowa ±36pp Utah ±4pp Penn State ±4pp Ole Miss ±4pp

67 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt 51%

Who cares:Ole Miss ±30pp Vanderbilt ±23pp Penn State ±1pp

54 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Georgia at Alabama

Georgia 58%

Who cares:Alabama ±28pp Georgia ±5pp Penn State ±4pp Iowa ±3pp

56 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Kansas at Utah

Utah 91%

Who cares:Utah ±33pp Penn State ±4pp Iowa ±4pp Alabama ±4pp

58 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas at Oklahoma

Texas 58%

Who cares:Texas ±23pp Oklahoma ±9pp Iowa ±2pp Utah ±2pp

42 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas A&M at Missouri

Texas A&M 53%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±18pp Missouri ±4pp Iowa ±2pp Penn State ±2pp

31 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 10

James Madison at Georgia Southern

James Madison 93%

Who cares:James Madison ±27pp South Florida ±7pp North Texas ±5pp Boise State ±2pp

45 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

THU OCT 8

South Florida at UTSA

South Florida 67%

Who cares:South Florida ±18pp Louisville ±2pp SMU ±2pp UTSA ±1pp

27 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI OCT 9

Florida State at Louisville

Louisville 77%

Who cares:Louisville ±8pp SMU ±2pp Ole Miss ±2pp Penn State ±1pp

14 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.