🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 6 · 2026
Week 6 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 6.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
TBD
SAT OCT 10
Ole MissatVanderbilt
Ole Miss 50%
Rooting for
Ole Miss
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 72.3%If Vanderbilt wins: 50.5%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Ole Miss wins: 73.6%If Vanderbilt wins: 72.3%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.8%If Ole Miss wins: 24.4%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 30.3%If Ole Miss wins: 28.1%
…
…
IowaatWashington
Washington 55%
Rooting for
Iowa
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 54.7%If Washington wins: 29.4%
Rooting for
Washington
WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 29.9%If Iowa wins: 13.6%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Washington wins: 46.7%If Iowa wins: 44.4%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Washington wins: 71.1%If Iowa wins: 69.6%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
USCatPenn State
Penn State 68%
Rooting for
USC
USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 39.3%If Penn State wins: 16.4%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If USC wins: 80.7%If Penn State wins: 79.4%
Rooting for
Penn State
Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 53.8%If USC wins: 28.1%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Penn State wins: 22.9%If USC wins: 21.7%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
GeorgiaatAlabama
Georgia 56%
Rooting for
Georgia
GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 81.8%If Alabama wins: 61.6%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Georgia wins: 62.5%If Alabama wins: 60.1%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 40.5%If Georgia wins: 20.5%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Alabama wins: 36.3%If Georgia wins: 34.2%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Alabama wins: 17.8%If Georgia wins: 16.7%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
Texas A&MatMissouri
Missouri 51%
Rooting for
Texas A&M
Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 41.2%If Missouri wins: 22.1%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Texas A&M wins: 29.9%If Missouri wins: 28.5%
Rooting for
Missouri
MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Missouri wins: 17.8%If Texas A&M wins: 6.9%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Missouri wins: 73.9%If Texas A&M wins: 72%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Missouri wins: 62.1%If Texas A&M wins: 60.7%
…
…
TexasatOklahoma
Texas 60%
Rooting for
Texas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 50.6%If Oklahoma wins: 30%
Rooting for
Oklahoma
OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Oklahoma wins: 28.8%If Texas wins: 14.6%
…
…
South FloridaatUTSA
UTSA 52%
Rooting for
South Florida
South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If South Florida wins: 24.6%If UTSA wins: 8.6%
Rooting for
UTSA
UTSACurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If UTSA wins: 11.6%If South Florida wins: 3%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If UTSA wins: 36.9%If South Florida wins: 34.9%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
KansasatUtah
Utah 89%
Rooting for
Kansas
Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Kansas wins: 71.1%If Utah wins: 66%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Kansas wins: 75%If Utah wins: 72.7%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Kansas wins: 36.9%If Utah wins: 34.9%
Rooting for
Utah
UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Utah wins: 45.8%If Kansas wins: 24.6%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
TennesseeatArkansas
Tennessee 58%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 22.5%If Arkansas wins: 9.8%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Tennessee wins: 29.7%If Arkansas wins: 28.6%
Rooting for
Arkansas
TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Arkansas wins: 43.6%If Tennessee wins: 41.6%ArkansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Arkansas wins: 2.5%If Tennessee wins: 0.6%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Arkansas wins: 13.2%If Tennessee wins: 11.9%
TBD
SAT OCT 10
James MadisonatGeorgia Southern
James Madison 84%
Rooting for
James Madison
James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 39.8%If Georgia Southern wins: 16.4%
Rooting for
Georgia Southern
North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If Georgia Southern wins: 11.1%If James Madison wins: 8.9%UTSACurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If Georgia Southern wins: 9.2%If James Madison wins: 7.1%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If Georgia Southern wins: 17.7%If James Madison wins: 16%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.