Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 6 · 2026

27%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

60%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 9.0

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-6 job: beat USC.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5 6

If Penn State wins out: 32% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

SAT OCT 10

USC at Penn State

Your game. Beat USC and your playoff odds are 73%; lose and they drop to 35%.

Penn State 66%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Maryland at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Maryland visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Ohio State 98%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Georgia at Alabama

Georgia winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Georgia 58%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Iowa at Washington

Washington visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 55%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Kansas at Utah

Kansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Utah 91%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

UCLA at Oregon

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings.

Oregon 98%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Indiana at Nebraska

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 92%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas A&M at Missouri

Missouri winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 53%

TBD

FRI OCT 9

Florida State at Louisville

Florida State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Louisville 77%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Vanderbilt 51%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Minnesota at Purdue

Minnesota visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Minnesota 72%

TBD

SAT OCT 10

Texas at Oklahoma

Oklahoma winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas 58%

44 more games that don't move your needle

Southern Miss at Troy

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State

New Mexico State at Florida International

South Florida at UTSA

South Alabama at Arkansas State

Sam Houston at Liberty

Missouri State at Western Kentucky

Washington State at Utah State

Tennessee at Arkansas

South Carolina at Florida

LSU at Kentucky

Hawai'i at Arizona State

Arizona at West Virginia

UCF at Oklahoma State

Houston at Kansas State

Iowa State at BYU

Duke at Georgia Tech

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Syracuse at Virginia

Virginia Tech at California

Wake Forest at NC State

Illinois at Michigan State

Ball State at Northwestern

Boise State at Fresno State

San Diego State at Oregon State

UConn at Temple

Tulane at Army

Charlotte at North Texas

Rice at East Carolina

UAB at Memphis

Tulsa at Navy

Air Force at Northern Illinois

Nevada at UTEP

Wyoming at San José State

Eastern Michigan at Akron

Buffalo at Toledo

Central Michigan at Ohio

Kent State at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Massachusetts

Old Dominion at App State

Coastal Carolina at Marshall

James Madison at Georgia Southern

Louisiana at Louisiana Tech

Stanford at Notre Dame

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.