Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 5 · 2026

27%

Big Ten title game

Win the Big Ten

60%

Make the playoff

<1%

First-round bye

avg seed 9.0

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-5 job: beat Northwestern.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5

If Penn State wins out: 32% to win the Big Ten, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Penn State's path

Your game

TBD

FRI OCT 2

Penn State at Northwestern

Your game. Beat Northwestern and your playoff odds are 65%; lose and they drop to 33%.

Penn State 83%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Ohio State at Iowa

Ohio State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Ohio State 67%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Indiana at Rutgers

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Rutgers visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 95%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Alabama at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Alabama 83%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Vanderbilt at Georgia

Georgia winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Georgia 77%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Arkansas at Texas A&M

Arkansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Texas A&M 86%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Boston College at SMU

Boston College winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

SMU 93%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Maryland at Nebraska

Big Ten race: Nebraska losing helps your spot in the standings; Maryland visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Nebraska 78%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Washington at USC

Washington visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

USC 68%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Michigan at Minnesota

Big Ten race: Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Minnesota visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Michigan 73%

45 more games that don't move your needle

North Texas at Tulsa

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech

Liberty at Delaware

Florida at Missouri

Kentucky at South Carolina

Auburn at Tennessee

Middle Tennessee at Kansas

Baylor at Arizona State

BYU at TCU

UCF at Houston

Cincinnati at Arizona

Texas Tech at Colorado

West Virginia at Iowa State

California at UNLV

Louisville at NC State

Miami at Clemson

Notre Dame at North Carolina

Stanford at Wake Forest

Syracuse at UConn

Virginia at Florida State

Purdue at Illinois

Michigan State at Wisconsin

Utah State at Boise State

Oregon State at Colorado State

Texas State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Washington State

Memphis at Charlotte

UTSA at Rice

Navy at Air Force

Temple at South Florida

San José State at Hawai'i

UTEP at New Mexico

Akron at Central Michigan

Toledo at Ball State

Western Michigan at Buffalo

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts

Ohio at Kent State

Bowling Green at Miami (OH)

Army at Louisiana Tech

Arkansas State at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina

Old Dominion at Georgia State

Marshall at James Madison

UL Monroe at South Alabama

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.