Penn State Nittany Lions

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Preseason

WEEK 4 · 2026

The Week 4 job

Beat Wisconsin and avoid turning a likely win into a season problem.

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

playoff chanceNow46%Win48%Loss29%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 11%Penn State 89%

Penn State

By importanceWatch plan

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

Priority 1

Oregon

at

Root for

USC

Root for USC6.0-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings; USC visits your schedule in week 6: keep them ranked.

27% if USC wins21% with the other result6-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance

…

…

FOX

Priority 2

Root for

Northwestern

at

Indiana

Root for Northwestern5.5-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 5: keep them ranked.

29% if Northwestern wins23% with the other result5.5-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

Priority 3

Iowa

at

Root for

Michigan

Root for Michigan3.3-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 7: keep them ranked.

25% if Michigan wins22% with the other result3.3-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

Priority 4

Texas A&M

at

Root for

LSU

Root for LSU2.0-point playoff boost

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

47% if LSU wins45% with the other result2-point differencePenn State playoff chance

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

Priority 5

Root for

Illinois

at

Ohio State

Root for Illinois2.5-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

26% if Illinois wins23% with the other result2.5-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT SEP 26

TV TBA

Priority 6

Root for

Minnesota

at

Washington

Root for Minnesota2.0-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Washington losing helps your spot in the standings; Minnesota visits your schedule in week 11: keep them ranked.

25% if Minnesota wins23% with the other result2-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance

…

…

ESPN

Priority 7

Clemson

at

Root for

California

Root for California1.3-point playoff boost

California winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

47% if California wins45% with the other result1.3-point differencePenn State playoff chance

49 more games that don't move your needle

Liberty at Coastal Carolina · ESPN

Navy at UAB · ESPN

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas · SECN+

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Ole Miss at Florida

Oklahoma at Georgia

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State · CBS

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Utah at Iowa State

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami · The CW Network

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford · ESPN

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

UCLA at Maryland

Nebraska at Michigan State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Rice at Fresno State · The CW Network

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State · CBSSN

Oregon State at UTEP · MW+

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Army at Temple · ESPN

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming · The CW Network

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky · SEC Network

New Mexico at New Mexico State · CBSSN

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State · ESPN+

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.