The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

…

…

SMUatLouisville

Louisville 52%

Rooting for

SMUSMU

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If SMU wins: 33.8%If Louisville wins: 13.5%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If SMU wins: 46%If Louisville wins: 45.3%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If SMU wins: 42.7%If Louisville wins: 42.2%

Rooting for

LouisvilleLouisville

LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Louisville wins: 16.5%If SMU wins: 5%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Louisville wins: 56.6%If SMU wins: 53.7%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Louisville wins: 70.7%If SMU wins: 70.1%

…

… · ESPN

MiamiatWake Forest

Miami 77%

Rooting for

MiamiMiami

MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 60.9%If Wake Forest wins: 36%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Miami wins: 8.2%If Wake Forest wins: 7.8%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Miami wins: 40.9%If Wake Forest wins: 40.5%

Rooting for

Wake ForestWake Forest

SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Wake Forest wins: 27.3%If Miami wins: 21.9%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Wake Forest wins: 13.4%If Miami wins: 10.4%ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If Wake Forest wins: 10.4%If Miami wins: 8.2%

…

… · FOX

HoustonatTexas Tech

Texas Tech 91%

Rooting for

HoustonHouston

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Houston wins: 47.5%If Texas Tech wins: 43.1%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Houston wins: 10%If Texas Tech wins: 8%Kansas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.1%If Houston wins: 5.9%If Texas Tech wins: 4%

Rooting for

Texas TechTexas Tech

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 68.6%If Houston wins: 45%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas Tech wins: 31.7%If Houston wins: 29.8%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Texas Tech wins: 70.5%If Houston wins: 69.5%

…

… · ABC

LSUatOle Miss

Ole Miss 84%

Rooting for

LSULSU

LSUCurrent playoff chance: 5.9%If LSU wins: 10.5%If Ole Miss wins: 5%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If LSU wins: 31.1%If Ole Miss wins: 28.9%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If LSU wins: 18.8%If Ole Miss wins: 16.9%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 64.3%If LSU wins: 46.5%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Ole Miss wins: 36.1%If LSU wins: 35.2%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Ole Miss wins: 73.1%If LSU wins: 72.3%

…

… · The CW Network

James MadisonatSan Diego State

James Madison 66%

Rooting for

James MadisonJMU

James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 41%If San Diego State wins: 26%Old DominionCurrent playoff chance: 5.4%If James Madison wins: 5.5%If San Diego State wins: 5.2%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If James Madison wins: 55.3%If San Diego State wins: 55%

Rooting for

San Diego StateSDSU

San Diego StateCurrent playoff chance: 2.1%If San Diego State wins: 3.5%If James Madison wins: 1.3%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If San Diego State wins: 10.4%If James Madison wins: 8.7%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If San Diego State wins: 17.3%If James Madison wins: 15.8%

…

… · ABC

GeorgiaatArkansas

Georgia 78%

Rooting for

GeorgiaGeorgia

GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 76.3%If Arkansas wins: 61.3%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Georgia wins: 61.7%If Arkansas wins: 60.6%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Georgia wins: 36.1%If Arkansas wins: 35.3%

Rooting for

ArkansasArkansas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Arkansas wins: 44.1%If Georgia wins: 42%ArkansasCurrent playoff chance: 1.4%If Arkansas wins: 2.8%If Georgia wins: 1%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Arkansas wins: 18.4%If Georgia wins: 16.8%

…

… · USA Network

North TexasatTexas State

Texas State 53%

Rooting for

North TexasNorth Texas

North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If North Texas wins: 12.8%If Texas State wins: 6.3%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If North Texas wins: 32.1%If Texas State wins: 31%UTSACurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If North Texas wins: 7.7%If Texas State wins: 7.3%

Rooting for

Texas StateTexas State

Texas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.4%If Texas State wins: 6.1%If North Texas wins: 2.4%Boise StateCurrent playoff chance: 3.8%If Texas State wins: 4.1%If North Texas wins: 3.4%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Texas State wins: 55.5%If North Texas wins: 54.9%

…

… · CBS

USCatRutgers

USC 72%

Rooting for

USCUSC

USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 27.2%If Rutgers wins: 14.6%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If USC wins: 70.7%If Rutgers wins: 69.8%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If USC wins: 22.7%If Rutgers wins: 22.1%

Rooting for

RutgersRutgers

Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Rutgers wins: 32.8%If USC wins: 31.1%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Rutgers wins: 56.3%If USC wins: 54.8%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Rutgers wins: 30.2%If USC wins: 28.9%

…

… · SECN+

UTSAatTexas

Texas 89%

Rooting for

UTSAUTSA

UTSACurrent playoff chance: 7.5%If UTSA wins: 12%If Texas wins: 6.9%WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If UTSA wins: 23.9%If Texas wins: 22.4%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If UTSA wins: 30.6%If Texas wins: 29.1%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 44%If UTSA wins: 30.3%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Texas wins: 17.3%If UTSA wins: 16%UNLVCurrent playoff chance: 3%If Texas wins: 3.1%If UTSA wins: 2.3%

…

… · ESPN+

East CarolinaatOld Dominion

Old Dominion 65%

Rooting for

East CarolinaECU

East CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 3.1%If East Carolina wins: 5%If Old Dominion wins: 2%South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If East Carolina wins: 17.1%If Old Dominion wins: 15.8%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If East Carolina wins: 55.6%If Old Dominion wins: 55%

Rooting for

Old DominionOld Dominion

Old DominionCurrent playoff chance: 5.4%If Old Dominion wins: 6.7%If East Carolina wins: 3.2%James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If Old Dominion wins: 36.8%If East Carolina wins: 34.5%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Old Dominion wins: 29.5%If East Carolina wins: 28.7%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.