The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it

Way too early

WEEK 5 · 2026

Week 5 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 5.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes

Ole Miss0–062%

First round · at the 8 seed

Utah0–062%

→

Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

Oregon0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

James Madison0–075%

→

Texas Tech0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

Georgia0–097%

First round · at the 6 seed

Iowa0–046%

→

Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

Miami0–069%

First round · at the 7 seed

Penn State0–060%

→

Indiana0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt75%

Miami0–0 · ACC69%

Utah0–0 · Big 1262%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC62%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten60%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten46%

Alabama0–0 · SEC35%

Texas0–0 · SEC27%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC19%

USC0–0 · Big Ten18%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC17%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Ohio State at Iowa

Ohio State 67%

Who cares:Iowa ±33pp Penn State ±5pp Ole Miss ±4pp Utah ±4pp

62 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Miami at Clemson

Miami 64%

Who cares:Miami ±33pp Clemson ±15pp SMU ±6pp South Florida ±3pp

58 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

FRI OCT 2

Penn State at Northwestern

Penn State 83%

Who cares:Penn State ±33pp Iowa ±4pp Ole Miss ±4pp Alabama ±4pp

64 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Marshall at James Madison

James Madison 92%

Who cares:James Madison ±32pp South Florida ±10pp North Texas ±5pp Boise State ±3pp

55 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Vanderbilt at Georgia

Georgia 77%

Who cares:Vanderbilt ±24pp Georgia ±7pp Utah ±3pp Iowa ±3pp

49 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Alabama at Mississippi State

Alabama 83%

Who cares:Alabama ±23pp Iowa ±3pp Texas ±3pp Penn State ±3pp

40 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Washington at USC

USC 68%

Who cares:USC ±18pp Washington ±4pp Ole Miss ±2pp Penn State ±2pp

30 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Arkansas at Texas A&M

Texas A&M 86%

Who cares:Texas A&M ±14pp Iowa ±2pp Penn State ±2pp Alabama ±2pp

23 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Boston College at SMU

SMU 93%

Who cares:SMU ±17pp South Florida ±3pp Miami ±3pp Penn State ±2pp

26 ppplayoff odds in play

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Louisville at NC State

Louisville 65%

Who cares:Louisville ±9pp SMU ±2pp Ole Miss ±2pp

13 ppplayoff odds in play

Conference races:ACC American Athletic Big 12 Big Sky Big South-OVC Big Ten CAA Conference USA Mid-American Mountain West MVFC Pac-12 SEC Southern Southland Sun Belt SWAC UAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.