🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
Preseason
WEEK 5 · 2026
Week 5 is still ahead — here's the national picture entering week 5.

The bracket as of today

12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
8Texas0–042%
First round · at the 8 seed
9Utah0–043%
1Indiana0–098%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
5Ole Miss0–061%
First round · at the 5 seed
12Miami0–055%
4Georgia0–073%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
6Oregon0–070%
First round · at the 6 seed
11Iowa0–041%
3Ohio State0–080%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
7Texas Tech0–067%
First round · at the 7 seed
10Penn State0–046%
2Notre Dame0–099%
Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%
Georgia0–0 · SEC73%
Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%
Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%
Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%
Miami0–0 · ACC55%
Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%
Utah0–0 · Big 1243%
Texas0–0 · SEC42%
Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%
James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%
Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%
Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%
Alabama0–0 · SEC29%
USC0–0 · Big Ten24%
SMU0–0 · ACC23%
Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%
Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%
Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%
South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
TBD
SAT OCT 3
MiamiatClemson
Miami 62%
Rooting for
Miami
MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 65.8%If Clemson wins: 38.3%
Rooting for
Clemson
ClemsonCurrent playoff chance: 8.7%If Clemson wins: 17.1%If Miami wins: 3.5%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Clemson wins: 25.5%If Miami wins: 21.7%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Clemson wins: 12.4%If Miami wins: 10.2%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Ohio StateatIowa
Ohio State 57%
Rooting for
Ohio State
Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If Ohio State wins: 86.8%If Iowa wins: 70.8%USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If Ohio State wins: 24.5%If Iowa wins: 22.7%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Ohio State wins: 11.7%If Iowa wins: 10.3%
Rooting for
Iowa
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 53.7%If Ohio State wins: 31%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
WashingtonatUSC
USC 62%
Rooting for
Washington
WashingtonCurrent playoff chance: 22.5%If Washington wins: 32.4%If USC wins: 16.4%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Washington wins: 41.9%If USC wins: 40.1%OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Washington wins: 71.3%If USC wins: 69.9%
Rooting for
USC
USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 30.5%If Washington wins: 12.9%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
VanderbiltatGeorgia
Georgia 75%
Rooting for
Vanderbilt
VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 49.9%If Georgia wins: 30.1%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 24.3%If Georgia wins: 22.8%
Rooting for
Georgia
GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Georgia wins: 77.7%If Vanderbilt wins: 58.8%
…
… · FOX
Penn StateatNorthwestern
Penn State 71%
Rooting for
Penn State
Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Penn State wins: 51.8%If Northwestern wins: 30.7%
Rooting for
Northwestern
IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Northwestern wins: 42.9%If Penn State wins: 39.9%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Northwestern wins: 62.9%If Penn State wins: 60.8%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Northwestern wins: 21.3%If Penn State wins: 19.9%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
Texas TechatColorado
Texas Tech 89%
Rooting for
Texas Tech
Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 69.4%If Colorado wins: 44.7%
Rooting for
Colorado
UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Colorado wins: 47.7%If Texas Tech wins: 43%Kansas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.1%If Colorado wins: 6.2%If Texas Tech wins: 3.9%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Colorado wins: 42.4%If Texas Tech wins: 40.6%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
MarshallatJames Madison
James Madison 88%
Rooting for
Marshall
South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If Marshall wins: 18.2%If James Madison wins: 16%Old DominionCurrent playoff chance: 5.4%If Marshall wins: 6.9%If James Madison wins: 5.2%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Marshall wins: 18.6%If James Madison wins: 17%
Rooting for
James Madison
James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 38.7%If Marshall wins: 15.8%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
AlabamaatMississippi State
Alabama 71%
Rooting for
Alabama
AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 33.7%If Mississippi State wins: 18.3%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Alabama wins: 73.3%If Mississippi State wins: 72.2%
Rooting for
Mississippi State
Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Mississippi State wins: 62.8%If Alabama wins: 60.8%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Mississippi State wins: 43.5%If Alabama wins: 42%OklahomaCurrent playoff chance: 20.3%If Mississippi State wins: 21.3%If Alabama wins: 19.9%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
LouisvilleatNC State
Louisville 51%
Rooting for
Louisville
LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Louisville wins: 16.4%If NC State wins: 5.5%
Rooting for
NC State
NC StateCurrent playoff chance: 3%If NC State wins: 5.2%If Louisville wins: 0.9%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If NC State wins: 56.4%If Louisville wins: 54.1%
TBD
SAT OCT 3
AuburnatTennessee
Tennessee 70%
Rooting for
Auburn
AuburnCurrent playoff chance: 4.8%If Auburn wins: 9.3%If Tennessee wins: 2.9%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Auburn wins: 62.8%If Tennessee wins: 60.8%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Auburn wins: 73.8%If Tennessee wins: 72.6%
Rooting for
Tennessee
TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 20.6%If Auburn wins: 9.2%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Tennessee wins: 35.5%If Auburn wins: 34.2%
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big SkyBig South-OVCBig TenCAAConference USAIvyMid-AmericanMountain WestMVFCNACCNECNew JerseyNorthwestPac-12PatriotPioneerSECSIACSouthernSouthlandSun BeltSWACUAC

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.