Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 5 · 2026

39%

Big Ten title game

18%

Win the Big Ten

>99%

Make the playoff

30%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.2

Way-too-early read: bye week — pure scoreboard-watching, whenever it arrives.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4 5

If Oregon wins out: 52% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Texas Tech at Colorado

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Colorado winning protects it.

Texas Tech 96%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Indiana at Rutgers

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings.

Indiana 95%

TBD

FRI OCT 2

Penn State at Northwestern

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Penn State 83%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Ohio State at Iowa

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Iowa winning protects it; you still play Ohio State in week 10.

Ohio State 67%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Vanderbilt at Georgia

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Vanderbilt winning protects it.

Georgia 77%

TBD

SAT OCT 3

Purdue at Illinois

Big Ten race: Purdue losing helps your spot in the standings; Illinois visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.

Illinois 88%

49 more games that don't move your needle

Michigan at Minnesota

Washington at USC

North Texas at Tulsa

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech

Liberty at Delaware

Alabama at Mississippi State

Florida at Missouri

Kentucky at South Carolina

Auburn at Tennessee

Arkansas at Texas A&M

Middle Tennessee at Kansas

Baylor at Arizona State

BYU at TCU

UCF at Houston

Cincinnati at Arizona

West Virginia at Iowa State

Boston College at SMU

California at UNLV

Louisville at NC State

Miami at Clemson

Notre Dame at North Carolina

Stanford at Wake Forest

Syracuse at UConn

Virginia at Florida State

Maryland at Nebraska

Michigan State at Wisconsin

Utah State at Boise State

Oregon State at Colorado State

Texas State at San Diego State

Fresno State at Washington State

Memphis at Charlotte

UTSA at Rice

Navy at Air Force

Temple at South Florida

San José State at Hawai'i

UTEP at New Mexico

Akron at Central Michigan

Toledo at Ball State

Western Michigan at Buffalo

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts

Ohio at Kent State

Bowling Green at Miami (OH)

Army at Louisiana Tech

Arkansas State at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina

Old Dominion at Georgia State

Marshall at James Madison

UL Monroe at South Alabama

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.