Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Way too early

WEEK 4 · 2026

39%

Big Ten title game

18%

Win the Big Ten

>99%

Make the playoff

30%

First-round bye

avg seed 5.2

Way-too-early read: ratings carry last season forward — the portal will have opinions. The week-4 job: beat USC.

Playoff odds by week

1 2 3 4

If Oregon wins out: 52% to win the Big Ten, 100% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Oregon's path

Your game

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oregon at USC

Your game. Beat USC and your playoff odds are >99%; lose and they drop to 99%.

Oregon 63%

Big swingsthese move your odds the most

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Northwestern at Indiana

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Northwestern visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Indiana 97%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Illinois at Ohio State

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings; Illinois visits your schedule in week 8 — keep them ranked.

Ohio State 96%

Worth a glancesmaller, but real

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Iowa at Michigan

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan visits your schedule in week 11 — keep them ranked.

Iowa 54%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Wisconsin at Penn State

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

Penn State 92%

TBD

SAT SEP 26

Oklahoma at Georgia

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Oklahoma winning protects it.

Georgia 81%

51 more games that don't move your needle

UCLA at Maryland

Army at Temple

Liberty at Coastal Carolina

Clemson at California

Navy at UAB

South Carolina at Alabama

Tulsa at Arkansas

Vanderbilt at Auburn

Ole Miss at Florida

Texas A&M at LSU

Missouri at Mississippi State

Texas at Tennessee

Arizona at Washington State

Sam Houston at Texas Tech

Houston at Georgia Southern

Colorado at Baylor

Kansas State at Cincinnati

TCU at UCF

Utah at Iowa State

Oklahoma State at West Virginia

Central Michigan at Miami

Delaware at Virginia

Georgia Tech at Stanford

Missouri State at SMU

Virginia Tech at Boston College

Wake Forest at Louisville

Nebraska at Michigan State

Notre Dame at Purdue

Minnesota at Washington

Rice at Fresno State

San Diego State at Toledo

Troy at Utah State

Oregon State at UTEP

Colorado State at UTSA

Boise State at Western Michigan

UConn at Miami (OH)

Louisiana at Charlotte

Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe

Southern Miss at Tulane

South Florida at Bowling Green

Air Force at Nevada

Hawai'i at Wyoming

Northern Illinois at Georgia State

UNLV at Akron

App State at NC State

South Alabama at Kentucky

New Mexico at New Mexico State

Ball State at Kent State

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State

James Madison at Old Dominion

Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, with last season's ratings carried forward — way too early, enjoy responsibly.