Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Preseason

WEEK 1 · 2026

The Week 1 job

Beat Boise State and avoid turning a likely win into a season problem.

TBD

SAT SEP 5

TV TBA

playoff chanceNow70%Win72%Loss55%

Boise State

Boise State 6%Oregon 94%

Oregon

By importanceWatch plan

TBD

SAT SEP 5

TV TBA

Priority 1

Western Michigan

at

Root for

Michigan

Root for Michigan2.8-point playoff boost

Michigan visits your schedule in week 11: keep them ranked.

71% if Michigan wins68% with the other result2.8-point differenceOregon playoff chance

TBD

SAT SEP 5

TV TBA

Priority 2

Root for

Missouri State

at

Texas A&M

Root for Missouri State2.7-point playoff boost

Missouri State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

73% if Missouri State wins70% with the other result2.7-point differenceOregon playoff chance

TBD

SAT SEP 5

TV TBA

Priority 3

Northern Illinois

at

Root for

Iowa

Root for Iowa3.7-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Northern Illinois losing helps your spot in the standings.

34% if Iowa wins30% with the other result3.7-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

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ABC

Priority 4

Root for

East Carolina

at

Alabama

Root for East Carolina2.3-point playoff boost

East Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

72% if East Carolina wins70% with the other result2.3-point differenceOregon playoff chance

TBD

SAT SEP 5

TV TBA

Priority 5

Root for

Texas State

at

Texas

Root for Texas State2.1-point playoff boost

Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

72% if Texas State wins70% with the other result2.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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TV TBA

Priority 6

Notre Dame

at

Root for

Wisconsin

Root for Wisconsin3.5-point first-round-bye boost

You're close to a playoff lock: the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Wisconsin winning protects it.

28% if Wisconsin wins24% with the other result3.5-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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ABC

Priority 7

Root for

Louisville

at

Ole Miss

Root for Louisville1.4-point playoff boost

Louisville winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

72% if Louisville wins70% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

41 more games that don't move your needle

Miami at Stanford · ESPN

Ohio at Nebraska

Toledo at Michigan State

Hawai'i at Stanford

Memphis at UNLV

San José State at USC

New Mexico State at Florida State

North Carolina at TCU · ESPN

NC State at Virginia · ESPN

Akron at Wake Forest

Massachusetts at Rutgers

Colorado at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Fresno State at USC

San José State at Eastern Michigan

Florida Atlantic at Florida

UL Monroe at Mississippi State

UTEP at Oklahoma

Kent State at South Carolina

Oklahoma State at Tulsa

Boston College at Cincinnati

Oregon State at Houston

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia

Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh

Tulane at Duke

UCLA at California

UAB at Illinois

North Texas at Indiana

Ball State at Ohio State

Marshall at Penn State

Washington State at Washington

Wyoming at Colorado State

Arkansas State at Memphis

Florida International at South Florida

Western Kentucky at Nevada

UNLV at Hawai'i

Central Michigan at New Mexico

Liberty at James Madison

Sam Houston at Troy

Baylor at Auburn · ABC

Clemson at LSU · ABC

SMU at Florida State · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.