Oregon Ducks

0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

Preseason

WEEK 12 · 2026

The Week 12 job

Beat Michigan State and avoid turning a likely win into a season problem.

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FOX

playoff chanceNow70%Win75%Loss41%

Oregon

Oregon 87%Michigan State 13%

Michigan State

By importanceWatch plan

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 1

Ohio State

at

Root for

Nebraska

Root for Nebraska6.3-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.

39% if Nebraska wins33% with the other result6.3-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 2

Indiana

at

Root for

Washington

Root for Washington5.8-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; Washington visits your schedule in week 13: keep them ranked.

39% if Washington wins33% with the other result5.8-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 3

Iowa

at

Root for

Illinois

Root for Illinois3.1-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Iowa losing helps your spot in the standings.

36% if Illinois wins33% with the other result3.1-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 4

Root for

Arkansas

at

Texas

Root for Arkansas1.9-point playoff boost

Arkansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

72% if Arkansas wins70% with the other result1.9-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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NBC

Priority 5

Root for

SMU

at

Notre Dame

Root for SMU3.3-point first-round-bye boost

You're close to a playoff lock: the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and SMU winning protects it.

27% if SMU wins24% with the other result3.3-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 6

Root for

Rutgers

at

Penn State

Root for Rutgers2.7-point title-game boost

Big Ten race: Penn State losing helps your spot in the standings.

36% if Rutgers wins34% with the other result2.7-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

TBD

SAT NOV 21

TV TBA

Priority 7

Texas Tech

at

Root for

Baylor

Root for Baylor1.4-point playoff boost

Baylor winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

72% if Baylor wins70% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

57 more games that don't move your needle

Northwestern at Minnesota

Georgia at South Carolina

Ball State at Ohio

Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan

Miami (OH) at Kent State

Akron at Massachusetts

Bowling Green at Toledo · ESPN2

Central Michigan at Buffalo

Rice at Temple · ESPN

Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech

Clemson at Duke · ESPN

Vanderbilt at Florida

Kentucky at Missouri

Texas A&M at Oklahoma

LSU at Tennessee

Arizona at Kansas State

BYU at Kansas

Colorado at Cincinnati

Houston at West Virginia

Iowa State at UCF · FS1

Oklahoma State at Arizona State

Utah at TCU

Virginia Tech at Miami

NC State at Florida State

North Carolina at Virginia

Pittsburgh at Louisville

Stanford at California

Syracuse at Boston College

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

UCLA at Michigan

Wisconsin at Purdue

Maryland at USC

Colorado State at Fresno State · The CW Network

Utah State at Oregon State · CBSSN

Washington State at Texas State · USA Network

San Diego State at Boise State · USA Network

Old Dominion at UConn · CBSSN

East Carolina at Army · CBSSN

Charlotte at Tulsa

South Florida at Florida Atlantic

Memphis at Navy

North Texas at Tulane

UTSA at UAB

Hawai'i at Nevada

New Mexico at Wyoming · FS1

UNLV at San José State · CBSSN

UTEP at Air Force · The CW Network

UL Monroe at App State

Coastal Carolina at Louisiana

Georgia Southern at Troy

Georgia State at Marshall

Delaware at New Mexico State

Florida International at Kennesaw State

Missouri State at Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky at Liberty

Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston

South Alabama at Southern Miss

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.