The CFP race

8Texas0–042%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Utah0–043%

→

1Indiana0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss0–061%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Miami0–055%

→

4Georgia0–073%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–070%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Iowa0–041%

→

3Ohio State0–080%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech0–067%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Penn State0–046%

→

2Notre Dame0–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

Ohio State0–0 · Big Ten80%

Georgia0–0 · SEC73%

Oregon0–0 · Big Ten70%

Texas Tech0–0 · Big 1267%

Ole Miss0–0 · SEC61%

Miami0–0 · ACC55%

Penn State0–0 · Big Ten46%

Utah0–0 · Big 1243%

Texas0–0 · SEC42%

Iowa0–0 · Big Ten41%

James Madison0–0 · Sun Belt36%

Vanderbilt0–0 · SEC35%

Texas A&M0–0 · SEC32%

Alabama0–0 · SEC29%

USC0–0 · Big Ten24%

SMU0–0 · ACC23%

Washington0–0 · Big Ten23%

Oklahoma0–0 · SEC20%

Tennessee0–0 · SEC17%

South Florida0–0 · American Athletic16%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Ole MissatTexas

Texas 53%

Rooting for

Ole MissOle Miss

Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Ole Miss wins: 75%If Texas wins: 49.5%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If Ole Miss wins: 73.7%If Texas wins: 72.3%

Rooting for

TexasTexas

TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If Texas wins: 53.8%If Ole Miss wins: 29.5%Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas wins: 32.2%If Ole Miss wins: 30.8%MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Texas wins: 13.1%If Ole Miss wins: 11.7%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Texas A&MatAlabama

Alabama 60%

Rooting for

Texas A&MTexas A&M

Texas A&MCurrent playoff chance: 31.6%If Texas A&M wins: 45.5%If Alabama wins: 22.4%TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Texas A&M wins: 17.8%If Alabama wins: 16.8%

Rooting for

AlabamaAlabama

AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Alabama wins: 38.5%If Texas A&M wins: 15.1%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Alabama wins: 35.6%If Texas A&M wins: 34.3%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

PittsburghatMiami

Miami 87%

Rooting for

PittsburghPittsburgh

PittsburghCurrent playoff chance: 2.4%If Pittsburgh wins: 8.7%If Miami wins: 1.4%SMUCurrent playoff chance: 23.1%If Pittsburgh wins: 26.5%If Miami wins: 22.6%LouisvilleCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If Pittsburgh wins: 14.2%If Miami wins: 10.6%

Rooting for

MiamiMiami

MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Miami wins: 59.1%If Pittsburgh wins: 30%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

TennesseeatSouth Carolina

South Carolina 53%

Rooting for

TennesseeTennessee

TennesseeCurrent playoff chance: 17.2%If Tennessee wins: 25.6%If South Carolina wins: 9.8%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Tennessee wins: 35.9%If South Carolina wins: 34.4%

Rooting for

South CarolinaSC

South CarolinaCurrent playoff chance: 7.8%If South Carolina wins: 11.3%If Tennessee wins: 3.8%GeorgiaCurrent playoff chance: 73%If South Carolina wins: 73.8%If Tennessee wins: 72%TexasCurrent playoff chance: 42.4%If South Carolina wins: 43.1%If Tennessee wins: 41.7%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

IowaatMinnesota

Iowa 74%

Rooting for

IowaIowa

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Iowa wins: 47.3%If Minnesota wins: 22.5%

Rooting for

MinnesotaMinnesota

Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Minnesota wins: 47.7%If Iowa wins: 44.9%UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Minnesota wins: 45%If Iowa wins: 43%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Minnesota wins: 36.2%If Iowa wins: 34.7%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

Texas TechatCincinnati

Texas Tech 83%

Rooting for

Texas TechTexas Tech

Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Texas Tech wins: 71.2%If Cincinnati wins: 43.4%

Rooting for

CincinnatiCincinnati

UtahCurrent playoff chance: 43.5%If Cincinnati wins: 48.4%If Texas Tech wins: 42.5%BYUCurrent playoff chance: 8.1%If Cincinnati wins: 10.5%If Texas Tech wins: 7.7%Kansas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.1%If Cincinnati wins: 5.3%If Texas Tech wins: 3.9%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

OregonatIllinois

Oregon 77%

Rooting for

OregonOregon

OregonCurrent playoff chance: 70.4%If Oregon wins: 75.7%If Illinois wins: 52.7%

Rooting for

IllinoisIllinois

IllinoisCurrent playoff chance: 1.8%If Illinois wins: 4.3%If Oregon wins: 1%IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Illinois wins: 42.8%If Oregon wins: 40.2%VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Illinois wins: 36.6%If Oregon wins: 34.6%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

VanderbiltatKentucky

Vanderbilt 73%

Rooting for

VanderbiltVanderbilt

VanderbiltCurrent playoff chance: 35.1%If Vanderbilt wins: 40.8%If Kentucky wins: 19.5%AlabamaCurrent playoff chance: 29.2%If Vanderbilt wins: 29.7%If Kentucky wins: 28.1%

Rooting for

KentuckyKentucky

MissouriCurrent playoff chance: 12.4%If Kentucky wins: 13.8%If Vanderbilt wins: 11.9%Ole MissCurrent playoff chance: 61.4%If Kentucky wins: 62.5%If Vanderbilt wins: 61%Penn StateCurrent playoff chance: 45.6%If Kentucky wins: 46.7%If Vanderbilt wins: 45.3%

…

… · ESPNU

James MadisonatApp State

James Madison 88%

Rooting for

James MadisonJMU

James MadisonCurrent playoff chance: 35.9%If James Madison wins: 38.7%If App State wins: 15.7%MichiganCurrent playoff chance: 11.1%If James Madison wins: 11.2%If App State wins: 9.9%

Rooting for

App StateApp State

South FloridaCurrent playoff chance: 16.3%If App State wins: 19.1%If James Madison wins: 15.9%Texas StateCurrent playoff chance: 4.4%If App State wins: 5.9%If James Madison wins: 4.2%North TexasCurrent playoff chance: 9.3%If App State wins: 10.8%If James Madison wins: 9.1%

TBD

SAT OCT 24

USCatWisconsin

USC 70%

Rooting for

USCUSC

USCCurrent playoff chance: 23.7%If USC wins: 29.3%If Wisconsin wins: 10.4%Ohio StateCurrent playoff chance: 79.8%If USC wins: 80.3%If Wisconsin wins: 78.8%

Rooting for

WisconsinWisconsin

IowaCurrent playoff chance: 40.8%If Wisconsin wins: 42.6%If USC wins: 40.1%MiamiCurrent playoff chance: 55.2%If Wisconsin wins: 56.1%If USC wins: 54.8%Texas TechCurrent playoff chance: 66.6%If Wisconsin wins: 67.5%If USC wins: 66.2%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, with preseason ratings projected from last season. How the model works.