The CFP race

8Oregon7–190%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Notre Dame6–299%

→

1Indiana9–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia7–1>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12James Madison7–165%

→

4Alabama7–1100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Ole Miss8–199%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Utah7–231%

→

3Texas A&M8–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas Tech8–174%

First round · at the 7 seed

10BYU8–060%

→

2Ohio State8–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#8Texas Tech8–1 · Big 12▲ +32pp74%

James Madison7–1 · Sun Belt▲ +25pp65%

#7BYU8–0 · Big 12▲ +39pp60%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 12▲ +16pp31%

#11Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +22pp28%

#14Virginia8–1 · ACC▲ +11pp24%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▲ +18pp24%

#15Louisville7–1 · ACC▲ +7pp23%

Memphis8–1 · American Athletic▼ −2pp18%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11).