🏈 Fan Watch

#11Texas Longhorns

7–2 · 4–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Texas was off. Playoff odds moved from 41% to 48%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
…
…
NBC
Impact 1
Rooted for
Navy
at
Notre Dame
Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection48% if Navy won41% with the other result6.6-point differenceTexas playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 2
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Projected 9.0-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Missouri won10% with the other result9-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 3
Rooted for
LSU
at
Alabama
Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if LSU won41% with the other result1.9-point differenceTexas playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 4
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Mississippi State won14% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
…
…
FS1
Impact 5
Rooted for
Houston
at
UCF
Final · Houston 30–27 UCFWish granted ✓
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Houston won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection42% if Houston won41% with the other result1.2-point differenceTexas playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Texas is off, then Navy, Missouri, LSU, Mississippi State, Houston.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.