🏈 Fan Watch

#10Texas Longhorns

7–2 · 4–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

Texas lost to Georgia. Playoff odds moved from 48% to 11%.

Your game

Texas at Georgia
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering48%Win75%Loss38%
Texas
Texas 28%Georgia 72%
Georgia
Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Texas A&M
Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 10.9-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if South Carolina won7% with the other result11-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 10.2-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Florida won8% with the other result10-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Pittsburgh won48% with the other result5.8-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Rooted for
Oklahoma
at
Alabama
Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓
Projected 6.8-point title-game boost

Alabama lost, improving Texas's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection14% if Oklahoma won7% with the other result6.8-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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ESPN2
Impact 5
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.3-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Baylor won48% with the other result3.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 6
Rooted for
Arkansas
at
LSU
Final · Arkansas 22–23 LSUWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

LSU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Arkansas won47% with the other result3.1-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 7
Virginia
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if Duke won47% with the other result1.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 8
Rooted for
TCU
at
BYU
Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if TCU won48% with the other result1.2-point differenceTexas playoff chance
49 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:Texas, then South Carolina, Florida, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Baylor, Arkansas, Duke, TCU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.