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#10Texas Longhorns

3–1 · 0–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
37%
SEC title game
18%
Win the SEC
73%
Make the playoff
7%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.1
How the week went: playoff odds 73% → 88% · title-game odds 37% → 35%.
Playoff odds by week
12345

If Texas wins out: 56% to win the SEC, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ABC
#22 Notre Dame at Arkansas

Arkansas visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Notre Dame 56–13 ArkansasWent the other way ✗
Root for Arkansas+5.5 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Auburn at #9 Texas A&M

You still play Texas A&M in week 14.

Final · Auburn 10–16 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+3.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · Peacock
#11 Indiana at Iowa

Iowa winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗
Root for Iowa+3.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#17 Alabama at #5 Georgia

Georgia visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Alabama 24–21 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Georgia+3.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
#15 Tennessee at Mississippi State

SEC race: Tennessee losing helps your spot in the standings; Mississippi State visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.

Final · Tennessee 41–34 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+3.3 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
#4 LSU at #13 Ole Miss

SEC race: Ole Miss losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · LSU 19–24 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+3.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · NBC
#6 Oregon at #3 Penn State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Penn State winning protects it.

Final · Oregon 30–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Penn State+2.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · FOX
#21 USC at #23 Illinois

Illinois winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · USC 32–34 IllinoisWish granted ✓
Root for Illinois+1.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Louisville at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Louisville 34–27 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+1.2 pp playoff odds
42 more games that don't move your needle
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5).