๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#10Texas Longhorns

3โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Texas was off. Playoff odds moved from 60% to 73%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
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Impact 1
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Georgia
Final ยท Alabama 24โ€“21 GeorgiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if Georgia won58% with the other result2.8-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
LSU
at
Ole Miss
Final ยท LSU 19โ€“24 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.3-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if LSU won36% with the other result3.3-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final ยท Notre Dame 56โ€“13 ArkansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Arkansas won59% with the other result2-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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Impact 4
Tennessee
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final ยท Tennessee 41โ€“34 Mississippi StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Tennessee won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Mississippi State won59% with the other result2-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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Impact 5
Jacksonville State
at
Rooted for
Southern Miss
Final ยท Jacksonville State 25โ€“42 Southern MissWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Southern Miss won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection61% if Southern Miss won59% with the other result2-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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Impact 6
USC
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final ยท USC 32โ€“34 IllinoisWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Illinois won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection61% if Illinois won59% with the other result1.6-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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Impact 7
Rooted for
Kentucky
at
South Carolina
Final ยท Kentucky 13โ€“35 South CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

South Carolina won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Kentucky won59% with the other result1.4-point differenceTexas playoff chance
44 other games had little impact
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Texas is off, then Georgia, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Southern Miss, Illinois, Kentucky.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.