๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#1Texas Longhorns

0โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 1 ยท 2025
The Week 1 recap

Texas lost to Ohio State. Playoff odds moved from 88% to 60%.

Your game

Texas at Ohio State
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first-round bye chanceEntering44%Win60%Loss38%
Texas
Texas 25%Ohio State 75%
Ohio State
Final ยท Texas 7โ€“14 Ohio StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Georgia State
at
Ole Miss
Final ยท Georgia State 7โ€“63 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.8-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Georgia State won23% with the other result5.8-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Miami
Final ยท Notre Dame 24โ€“27 MiamiWish granted โœ“
Projected 4.4-point first-round-bye boost

Miami won, helping protect Texas's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection47% if Miami won43% with the other result4.4-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance
45 other games had little impact
UTSA at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Iowa State at Kansas State ยท ESPN
Fresno State at Kansas ยท FOX
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky ยท CBSSN
Stanford at Hawai'i ยท CBS
Boise State at South Florida ยท ESPN
Ohio at Rutgers ยท BTN
East Carolina at NC State ยท ACC Network
Jacksonville State at UCF ยท ESPN+
Wyoming at Akron ยท ESPN+
Buffalo at Minnesota ยท FS1
Nebraska at Cincinnati ยท ESPN
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Western Michigan at Michigan State ยท FS1
Kennesaw State at Wake Forest ยท ACC Network
App State at Charlotte ยท ESPNU
Auburn at Baylor ยท FOX
Georgia Tech at Colorado ยท ESPN
UNLV at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Central Michigan at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Mississippi State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN
Syracuse at Tennessee ยท ABC
Florida Atlantic at Maryland ยท BTN
Ball State at Purdue ยท BTN
Northwestern at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Old Dominion at Indiana ยท FS1
Alabama at Florida State ยท ABC
Marshall at Georgia ยท ESPN
Nevada at Penn State ยท CBS
Temple at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Virginia ยท ACC Network
LSU at Clemson ยท ABC
Missouri State at USC ยท BTN
New Mexico at Michigan ยท NBC
UTEP at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Rice at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Texas State ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Fresno State ยท FS1
California at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at Arizona ยท TNT
Utah at UCLA ยท FOX
Colorado State at Washington ยท BTN
Virginia Tech at South Carolina ยท ESPN
TCU at North Carolina ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Texas, then Georgia State, Miami.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.