The CFP race

8Clemson0–039%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Miami0–034%

→

1Penn State0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas0–088%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Michigan0–024%

→

4Ohio State0–093%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–060%

First round · at the 6 seed

11USC0–027%

→

3Georgia0–095%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss0–055%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Alabama0–034%

→

2Notre Dame0–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#7Oregon0–0 · Big Ten60%

#21Ole Miss0–0 · SEC55%

#4Clemson0–0 · ACC39%

#10Miami0–0 · ACC34%

#8Alabama0–0 · SEC34%

USC0–0 · Big Ten27%

#14Michigan0–0 · Big Ten24%

#9LSU0–0 · SEC24%

#11Arizona State0–0 · Big 1224%

#16SMU0–0 · ACC23%

#20Indiana0–0 · Big Ten23%

#24Tennessee0–0 · SEC22%

TCU0–0 · Big 1219%

#13South Carolina0–0 · SEC19%

Jacksonville State0–0 · Conference USA18%

Louisville0–0 · ACC17%

Tulane0–0 · American Athletic17%

UNLV0–0 · Mountain West16%

#17Kansas State0–0 · Big 1215%

…

… · ABC

#9LSUat#4Clemson

Final · LSU 17–10 Clemson

…

… · ESPN

#22Iowa Stateat#17Kansas State

Final · Iowa State 24–21 Kansas State

…

… · FOX

#1Texasat#3Ohio State

Final · Texas 7–14 Ohio State

…

… · ABC

#6Notre Dameat#10Miami

Final · Notre Dame 24–27 Miami

…

… · ABC

#8AlabamaatFlorida State

Final · Alabama 17–31 Florida State

…

… · SEC Network

Georgia Stateat#21Ole Miss

Final · Georgia State 7–63 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPN

#25Boise StateatSouth Florida

Final · Boise State 7–34 South Florida

…

… · ESPN

Virginia Techat#13South Carolina

Final · Virginia Tech 11–24 South Carolina

…

… · ESPN+

Jacksonville StateatUCF

Final · Jacksonville State 10–17 UCF

…

… · FS1

Old Dominionat#20Indiana

Final · Old Dominion 14–27 Indiana

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.