The CFP race

8Texas Tech6–070%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Texas A&M6–064%

→

1Ohio State6–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia5–181%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Memphis6–037%

→

4Alabama5–180%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Ole Miss6–080%

First round · at the 6 seed

11LSU5–132%

→

3Indiana6–088%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon5–178%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Notre Dame4–269%

→

2Miami5–083%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#2Miami5–0 · ACC▲ +1pp83%

#9Georgia5–1 · SEC▲ +16pp81%

#5Ole Miss6–0 · SEC▼ −5pp80%

#6Alabama5–1 · SEC▲ +4pp80%

#8Oregon5–1 · Big Ten▼ −11pp78%

#7Texas Tech6–0 · Big 12▲ +19pp70%

#13Notre Dame4–2 · FBS Independents▲ +4pp69%

#4Texas A&M6–0 · SEC▲ +7pp64%

#22Memphis6–0 · American Athletic▲ +4pp37%

#10LSU5–1 · SEC▲ +11pp32%

#11Tennessee5–1 · SEC▼ −2pp28%

#21Texas4–2 · SEC▲ +4pp19%

#23Utah5–1 · Big 12▲ +12pp18%

#16Missouri5–1 · SEC▲ +3pp18%

#19South Florida5–1 · American Athletic▲ +14pp17%

#15BYU6–0 · Big 12▲ +3pp17%

Boise State4–2 · Mountain West▲ +1pp17%

Penn State3–3 · Big Ten▼ −7pp15%

#14Oklahoma5–1 · SEC▼ −35pp15%

…

… · NBC

#20USCat#13Notre Dame

Final · USC 24–34 Notre Dame

…

… · FOX

#23Utahat#15BYU

Final · Utah 21–24 BYU

…

… · ABC

#10LSUat#17Vanderbilt

Final · LSU 24–31 Vanderbilt

…

… · ABC

#11Tennesseeat#6Alabama

Final · Tennessee 20–37 Alabama

…

… · ABC

#5Ole Missat#9Georgia

Final · Ole Miss 35–43 Georgia

…

… · ESPN

Louisvilleat#2Miami

Final · Louisville 24–21 Miami

…

… · ESPN

#4Texas A&MatArkansas

Final · Texas A&M 45–42 Arkansas

…

… · FOX

#7Texas TechatArizona State

Final · Texas Tech 22–26 Arizona State

…

… · SEC Network

#14OklahomaatSouth Carolina

Final · Oklahoma 26–7 South Carolina

…

… · SEC Network

#16MissouriatAuburn

Final · Missouri 23–17 Auburn

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.