#6Alabama Crimson Tide

5–1 · 3–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 8 · 2025

The Week 8 recap

Alabama beat Tennessee. Playoff odds moved from 80% to 88%.

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ABC

SEC title-game chanceEntering78%Win86%Loss50%

Tennessee

Tennessee 23%Alabama 77%

Alabama

Final · Tennessee 20–37 AlabamaWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

Arkansas

Final · Texas A&M 45–42 ArkansasWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection80% if Arkansas won77% with the other result2.9-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

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SEC Network

Impact 2

Missouri

at

Rooted for

Auburn

Final · Missouri 23–17 AuburnWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Missouri won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection81% if Auburn won79% with the other result1.7-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

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CBS

Impact 3

Ohio State

at

Rooted for

Wisconsin

Final · Ohio State 34–0 WisconsinWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.0-point first-round-bye boost

Ohio State won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if Wisconsin won41% with the other result3-point differenceAlabama first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Ole Miss

at

Rooted for

Georgia

Final · Ole Miss 35–43 GeorgiaWish granted ✓

Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Ole Miss lost, improving Alabama's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection78% if Georgia won76% with the other result2.5-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance

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CBSSN

Impact 5

Rooted for

Central Michigan

at

Bowling Green

Final · Central Michigan 27–6 Bowling GreenWish granted ✓

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Central Michigan won, thinning out the at-large competition for Alabama's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection82% if Central Michigan won80% with the other result1.5-point differenceAlabama playoff chance

53 other games had little impact

Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX

LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC

Louisville at Miami · ESPN

Oklahoma at South Carolina · SEC Network

Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network

New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN

Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2

Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU

Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2

UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN

Tulsa at East Carolina · ESPN

Nebraska at Minnesota · FOX

San José State at Utah State · CBSSN

North Carolina at California · ESPN

Washington at Michigan · FOX

Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN

UConn at Boston College · ACC Network

Arizona at Houston · FS1

Baylor at TCU · ESPN2

Army at Tulane · ESPNU

Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+

West Virginia at UCF · TNT

Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+

Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+

Purdue at Northwestern · BTN

Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Michigan State at Indiana · Peacock

SMU at Clemson · ACC Network

Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN

UNLV at Boise State · FS1

Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+

Old Dominion at James Madison · ESPNU

Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+

Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+

UTSA at North Texas · ESPN+

Akron at Ball State · ESPN+

Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+

Memphis at UAB · ESPN2

Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+

Oregon at Rutgers · BTN

Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network

Texas at Kentucky · ESPN

Penn State at Iowa · Peacock

Maryland at UCLA · FS1

Hawai'i at Colorado State

Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

USC at Notre Dame · NBC

Pittsburgh at Syracuse · ACC Network

Florida Atlantic at South Florida · ESPNU

Utah at BYU · FOX

Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2

Nevada at New Mexico · FS1

Florida State at Stanford · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.