๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#10Alabama Crimson Tide

3โ€“1 ยท 1โ€“0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 6 ยท 2025
The Week 6 recap

Alabama beat Vanderbilt. Playoff odds moved from 54% to 77%.

Your game

Vanderbilt at Alabama
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SEC title-game chanceEntering56%Win63%Loss26%
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 17%Alabama 83%
Alabama
Final ยท Vanderbilt 14โ€“30 AlabamaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Alabama wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Boise State
at
Notre Dame
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“28 Notre DameWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.6-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Alabama did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if Boise State won54% with the other result4.6-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
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Impact 2
Texas
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final ยท Texas 21โ€“29 FloridaWish granted โœ“
Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Texas lost, improving Alabama's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection60% if Florida won55% with the other result4.5-point differenceAlabama SEC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
James Madison
at
Georgia State
Final ยท James Madison 14โ€“7 Georgia StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

James Madison won, thinning out the at-large competition for Alabama's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection54% if James Madison won52% with the other result2.2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
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Impact 4
Ohio
at
Rooted for
Ball State
Final ยท Ohio 14โ€“20 Ball StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Ball State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Alabama's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection56% if Ball State won54% with the other result2-point differenceAlabama playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
Miami at Florida State ยท ABC
Sam Houston at New Mexico State ยท CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida ยท ESPN2
New Mexico at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
West Virginia at BYU ยท ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia ยท ABC
Wisconsin at Michigan ยท FOX
Illinois at Purdue ยท BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh ยท ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor ยท ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati ยท ESPN2
Air Force at Navy ยท CBS
Army at UAB ยท ESPNU
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
UTSA at Temple ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona ยท truTV
Penn State at UCLA ยท CBS
Washington at Maryland ยท BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern ยท BTN
Oregon State at App State ยท ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU ยท ACC Network
Florida International at UConn ยท CBSSN
Central Michigan at Akron ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma ยท SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska ยท FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston ยท ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy ยท ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice ยท ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M ยท SEC Network
Minnesota at Ohio State ยท NBC
Colorado at TCU ยท FOX
Kansas at UCF ยท ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis ยท ESPNU
Duke at California ยท ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Alabama, then Boise State, Florida, James Madison, Ball State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.