The CFP race

8Alabama3–154%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Georgia3–161%

→

1Ohio State4–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Ole Miss5–082%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Notre Dame2–260%

→

4Miami4–075%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas3–173%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Texas A&M4–042%

→

3Penn State3–186%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Indiana5–075%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Oklahoma4–044%

→

2Oregon5–091%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#4Ole Miss5–0 · SEC▲ +30pp82%

#8Indiana5–0 · Big Ten▲ +20pp75%

#3Miami4–0 · ACC▼ −11pp75%

#9Texas3–1 · SEC▲ +14pp73%

#12Georgia3–1 · SEC▼ −28pp61%

#21Notre Dame2–2 · FBS Independents▼ −1pp60%

#10Alabama3–1 · SEC▲ +20pp54%

#5Oklahoma4–0 · SEC▲ +7pp44%

#6Texas A&M4–0 · SEC▲ +10pp42%

#11Texas Tech4–0 · Big 1231%

Memphis5–0 · American Athletic▲ +5pp24%

#25Arizona State4–1 · Big 12▲ +1pp20%

Louisville4–0 · ACC▲ +1pp19%

James Madison3–1 · Sun Belt▲ +5pp19%

Boise State3–1 · Mountain West▲ +9pp17%

#20Michigan3–1 · Big Ten▼ −2pp15%

#13LSU4–1 · SEC▼ −29pp15%

…

… · NBC

Boise Stateat#21Notre Dame

Final · Boise State 7–28 Notre Dame

…

… · ABC

#3Miamiat#18Florida State

Final · Miami 28–22 Florida State

…

… · ABC

#16Vanderbiltat#10Alabama

Final · Vanderbilt 14–30 Alabama

…

… · ESPN

#11Texas TechatHouston

Final · Texas Tech 35–11 Houston

…

… · SEC Network

Kent Stateat#5Oklahoma

Final · Kent State 0–44 Oklahoma

…

… · ESPN

#9TexasatFlorida

Final · Texas 21–29 Florida

…

… · SEC Network

Mississippi Stateat#6Texas A&M

Final · Mississippi State 9–31 Texas A&M

…

… · ESPN2

#24VirginiaatLouisville

Final · Virginia 30–27 Louisville

…

… · ESPN2

#14Iowa StateatCincinnati

Final · Iowa State 30–38 Cincinnati

…

… · ABC

Kentuckyat#12Georgia

Final · Kentucky 14–35 Georgia

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.