The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
11 teams on the bubble entering week 6.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
→
1
Ohio State4–0100%
Ohio State4–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
→
4
Ole Miss5–0>99%
Ole Miss5–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Penn State3–1>99%
Penn State3–1>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Oregon5–0>99%
Oregon5–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country…
… · NBC
Boise State at #21 Notre Dame
Final · Boise State 7–28 Notre Dame
117 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#16 Vanderbilt at #10 Alabama
Final · Vanderbilt 14–30 Alabama
56 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#3 Miami at #18 Florida State
Final · Miami 28–22 Florida State
50 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · SEC Network
Mississippi State at #6 Texas A&M
Final · Mississippi State 9–31 Texas A&M
56 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
Kentucky at #12 Georgia
Final · Kentucky 14–35 Georgia
59 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN2
#24 Virginia at Louisville
Final · Virginia 30–27 Louisville
31 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
#11 Texas Tech at Houston
Final · Texas Tech 35–11 Houston
29 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
#9 Texas at Florida
Final · Texas 21–29 Florida
30 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · SEC Network
36 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPNU
Tulsa at Memphis
Final · Tulsa 7–45 Memphis
40 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6).