🏈 Fan Watch

#7Penn State Nittany Lions

3–1 · 0–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
The Week 6 recap

Penn State lost to UCLA. Playoff odds moved from 86% to 22%.

Your game

Penn State at UCLA
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CBS
playoff chanceEntering86%Win87%Loss70%
Penn State
Penn State 98%UCLA 2%
UCLA
Final · Penn State 37–42 UCLAWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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NBC
Impact 1
Rooted for
Minnesota
at
Ohio State
Final · Minnesota 3–42 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.4-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Minnesota won22% with the other result5.4-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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NBC
Impact 2
Rooted for
Boise State
at
Notre Dame
Final · Boise State 7–28 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection89% if Boise State won86% with the other result2.4-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Miami
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Miami 28–22 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.4-point first-round-bye boost

Miami won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection46% if Florida State won42% with the other result3.4-point differencePenn State first-round bye chance
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FOX
Impact 4
Rooted for
Wisconsin
at
Michigan
Final · Wisconsin 10–24 MichiganWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Michigan won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Wisconsin won22% with the other result2.5-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
45 other games had little impact
Texas at Florida · ESPN
Colorado at TCU · FOX
Sam Houston at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware · CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida · ESPN2
New Mexico at San José State · FS1
West Virginia at BYU · ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia · ABC
Illinois at Purdue · BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina · ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor · ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Air Force at Navy · CBS
Army at UAB · ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State · CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
UTSA at Temple · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona · truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama · ABC
Washington at Maryland · BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern · BTN
Oregon State at App State · ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville · ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU · ACC Network
Florida International at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma · SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska · FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston · ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming · CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M · SEC Network
Kansas at UCF · ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis · ESPNU
Duke at California · ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Minnesota, Boise State, Florida State, Wisconsin.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.