🏈 Fan Watch

#2Penn State Nittany Lions

2–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
The Week 3 recap

Penn State beat Villanova. Playoff odds moved from 98% to >99%.

Your game

Villanova at Penn State
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FS1
Game forecast
Villanova
Forecast TBA
Penn State
Final · Villanova 6–52 Penn StateWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Northwestern
Final · Oregon 34–14 NorthwesternWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.4-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Northwestern won64% with the other result5.4-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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CBS
Impact 2
USC
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final · USC 33–17 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.3-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Purdue won64% with the other result5.3-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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NBC
Impact 3
Rooted for
Texas A&M
at
Notre Dame
Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre DameWish granted ✓
Projected 3.4-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won, helping protect Penn State's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection80% if Texas A&M won77% with the other result3.4-point differencePenn State first-round bye chance
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BTN
Impact 4
Rooted for
Central Michigan
at
Michigan
Final · Central Michigan 3–63 MichiganWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point first-round-bye boost

Michigan won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Central Michigan won77% with the other result2.6-point differencePenn State first-round bye chance
43 other games had little impact
Buffalo at Kent State · CBSSN
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · ACC Network
Boston College at Stanford · ACC Network
NC State at Wake Forest · ESPN
Colorado at Houston · ESPN
Kansas State at Arizona · FOX
New Mexico at UCLA · BTN
Wisconsin at Alabama · ABC
Oklahoma at Temple · ESPN2
Clemson at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Memphis at Troy · ESPNU
South Alabama at Auburn · SEC Network
Louisiana at Missouri · ESPN+
UConn at Delaware · ESPN+
Georgia at Tennessee · ABC
Oregon State at Texas Tech · FOX
Washington State at North Texas · ESPNU
SMU at Missouri State · CBSSN
Pittsburgh at West Virginia · ESPN
Iowa State at Arkansas State · ESPN2
UTEP at Texas · SEC Network
South Florida at Miami · The CW Network
Liberty at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Nevada
Florida Atlantic at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas at Ole Miss · ESPN
Ohio at Ohio State · Peacock
Western Michigan at Illinois · FS1
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
App State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky · ESPNU
Florida at LSU · ABC
Massachusetts at Iowa · BTN
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Vanderbilt at South Carolina · SEC Network
Duke at Tulane · ESPN2
Utah at Wyoming · CBSSN
Navy at Tulsa · ESPN+
Akron at UAB · ESPN+
Air Force at Utah State · FS1
Minnesota at California · ESPN
Texas State at Arizona State · TNT
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Northwestern, Purdue, Texas A&M, Central Michigan.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.