๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#3Penn State Nittany Lions

3โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Penn State lost to Oregon. Playoff odds moved from 96% to 86%.

Your game

Oregon at Penn State
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Big Ten title-game chanceEntering66%Win75%Loss32%
Oregon
Oregon 22%Penn State 78%
Penn State
Final ยท Oregon 30โ€“24 Penn StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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Impact 1
USC
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final ยท USC 32โ€“34 IllinoisWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.9-point title-game boost

USC lost, improving Penn State's place in the Big Ten standings.

Entering-week projection68% if Illinois won65% with the other result2.9-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final ยท Ohio State 24โ€“6 WashingtonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Washington won65% with the other result2.1-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final ยท Indiana 20โ€“15 IowaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Iowa won65% with the other result2.1-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Illinois, Washington, Iowa.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.