๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Penn State Nittany Lions

3โ€“2 ยท 0โ€“2 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 7 ยท 2025
The Week 7 recap

Penn State lost to Northwestern. Playoff odds moved from 22% to 15%.

Your game

Northwestern at Penn State
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playoff chanceEntering22%Win23%Loss7%
Northwestern
Northwestern 3%Penn State 97%
Penn State
Final ยท Northwestern 22โ€“21 Penn StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Penn State wanted
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Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final ยท Ohio State 34โ€“16 IllinoisWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.8-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection5% if Illinois won2% with the other result2.8-point differencePenn State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Indiana
at
Oregon
Final ยท Indiana 30โ€“20 OregonWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Oregon lost, softening the damage from Penn State's loss to them.

Entering-week projection23% if Indiana won22% with the other result1.4-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Iowa
at
Wisconsin
Final ยท Iowa 37โ€“0 WisconsinWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Iowa won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 8 game against Penn State.

Entering-week projection23% if Iowa won21% with the other result1.3-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rice
at
Rooted for
UTSA
Final ยท Rice 13โ€“61 UTSAWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

UTSA won, thinning out the at-large competition for Penn State's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection23% if UTSA won21% with the other result1.3-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 5
Oklahoma
at
Rooted for
Texas
Final ยท Oklahoma 6โ€“23 TexasWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Texas won, thinning out the at-large competition for Penn State's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection23% if Texas won21% with the other result1.2-point differencePenn State playoff chance
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Impact 6
Rooted for
Florida
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท Florida 17โ€“34 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Penn State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Florida won22% with the other result1.2-point differencePenn State playoff chance
49 other games had little impact
Missouri State at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN2
Liberty at UTEP ยท CBSSN
Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State ยท ESPNU
East Carolina at Tulane ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston ยท CBSSN
Southern Miss at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN2
South Florida at North Texas ยท ESPN2
Rutgers at Washington ยท FS1
Fresno State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
Alabama at Missouri ยท ABC
UCLA at Michigan State ยท BTN
Pittsburgh at Florida State ยท ESPN
Stanford at SMU ยท The CW Network
UCF at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Houston at Oklahoma State ยท TNT
Louisiana at James Madison ยท ESPN2
Charlotte at Army ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Akron ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Bowling Green ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Ole Miss ยท SEC Network
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Massachusetts at Kent State ยท ESPN+
Nebraska at Maryland ยท BTN
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech ยท ACC Network
NC State at Notre Dame ยท Peacock
Wake Forest at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
Iowa State at Colorado ยท ESPN
TCU at Kansas State ยท FOX
Air Force at UNLV ยท CBSSN
App State at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
Old Dominion at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
Navy at Temple ยท ESPN2
Arkansas at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
UAB at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Georgia at Auburn ยท ABC
Purdue at Minnesota ยท BTN
Michigan at USC ยท NBC
Clemson at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Kansas at Texas Tech ยท FOX
South Carolina at LSU ยท SEC Network
BYU at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Troy at Texas State ยท ESPN+
New Mexico at Boise State ยท FS1
Arizona State at Utah ยท ESPN
San Diego State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Penn State, then Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, UTSA, Texas, Florida.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.