The CFP race

8Texas Tech5–051%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Texas A&M5–057%

→

1Ohio State5–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Alabama4–177%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Memphis6–033%

→

4Ole Miss5–086%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Indiana5–078%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame3–265%

→

3Miami5–083%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Georgia4–164%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Oklahoma5–050%

→

2Oregon5–089%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#2Miami5–0 · ACC▲ +8pp83%

#7Indiana5–0 · Big Ten▲ +3pp78%

#8Alabama4–1 · SEC▲ +23pp77%

#16Notre Dame3–2 · FBS Independents▲ +5pp65%

#10Georgia4–1 · SEC▲ +3pp64%

#5Texas A&M5–0 · SEC▲ +14pp57%

#9Texas Tech5–0 · Big 12▲ +20pp51%

#6Oklahoma5–0 · SEC▲ +6pp50%

#23Memphis6–0 · American Athletic▲ +9pp33%

#12Tennessee4–1 · SEC▲ +16pp30%

Penn State3–2 · Big Ten▼ −64pp22%

#11LSU4–1 · SEC▲ +6pp21%

#21Arizona State4–1 · Big 12▲ +1pp21%

#15Michigan4–1 · Big Ten▲ +4pp19%

Boise State3–2 · Mountain West▼ −1pp16%

Texas3–2 · SEC▼ −58pp15%

…

… · ABC

#8Alabamaat#14Missouri

Final · Alabama 27–24 Missouri

…

… · CBS

#7Indianaat#3Oregon

Final · Indiana 30–20 Oregon

…

… · Peacock

NC Stateat#16Notre Dame

Final · NC State 7–36 Notre Dame

…

… · ABC

#6OklahomaatTexas

Final · Oklahoma 6–23 Texas

…

… · FOX

Kansasat#9Texas Tech

Final · Kansas 17–42 Texas Tech

…

… · ESPN

Floridaat#5Texas A&M

Final · Florida 17–34 Texas A&M

…

… · ABC

#10GeorgiaatAuburn

Final · Georgia 20–10 Auburn

…

… · NBC

#15MichiganatUSC

Final · Michigan 13–31 USC

…

… · ESPN

#21Arizona StateatUtah

Final · Arizona State 10–42 Utah

…

… · SEC Network

Arkansasat#12Tennessee

Final · Arkansas 31–34 Tennessee

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.