🏈 Fan Watch

#16Notre Dame Fighting Irish

3–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 7 · 2025
The Week 7 recap

Notre Dame beat NC State. Playoff odds moved from 65% to 69%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

NC State at Notre Dame
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Peacock
playoff chanceEntering65%Win65%Loss23%
NC State
NC State 1%Notre Dame 99%
Notre Dame
Final · NC State 7–36 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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NBC
Impact 1
Michigan
at
Rooted for
USC
Final · Michigan 13–31 USCWish granted ✓
Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

USC won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 8 game against Notre Dame.

Entering-week projection66% if USC won63% with the other result3.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Arkansas
at
Tennessee
Final · Arkansas 31–34 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Tennessee won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Arkansas won64% with the other result2.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Georgia 20–10 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Auburn won64% with the other result2.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Rooted for
Florida
at
Texas A&M
Final · Florida 17–34 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Florida won64% with the other result2.1-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 5
BYU
at
Rooted for
Arizona
Final · BYU 33–27 ArizonaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Arizona won64% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 6
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Alabama 27–24 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection66% if Missouri won64% with the other result1.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 7
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
at
Florida State
Final · Pittsburgh 34–31 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Pittsburgh won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 12 game against Notre Dame.

Entering-week projection66% if Pittsburgh won64% with the other result1.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
48 other games had little impact
Missouri State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Liberty at UTEP · CBSSN
Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
East Carolina at Tulane · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Southern Miss at Georgia Southern · ESPN2
South Florida at North Texas · ESPN2
Rutgers at Washington · FS1
Fresno State at Colorado State · CBSSN
UCLA at Michigan State · BTN
Ohio State at Illinois · FOX
Stanford at SMU · The CW Network
UCF at Cincinnati · FS1
Houston at Oklahoma State · TNT
Louisiana at James Madison · ESPN2
Charlotte at Army · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Akron · ESPN+
Toledo at Bowling Green · ESPNU
Washington State at Ole Miss · SEC Network
Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Kent State · ESPN+
Oklahoma at Texas · ABC
Northwestern at Penn State · FS1
Nebraska at Maryland · BTN
Indiana at Oregon · CBS
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Oregon State · The CW Network
Iowa State at Colorado · ESPN
TCU at Kansas State · FOX
Air Force at UNLV · CBSSN
App State at Georgia State · ESPN+
Old Dominion at Marshall · ESPN+
Ball State at Western Michigan · ESPN+
Navy at Temple · ESPN2
UAB at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Iowa at Wisconsin · FS1
San José State at Wyoming · CBSSN
UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Purdue at Minnesota · BTN
Clemson at Boston College · ACC Network
Kansas at Texas Tech · FOX
Rice at UTSA · ESPNU
South Carolina at LSU · SEC Network
Troy at Texas State · ESPN+
New Mexico at Boise State · FS1
Arizona State at Utah · ESPN
San Diego State at Nevada · CBSSN
Utah State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then USC, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Arizona, Missouri, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.