🏈 Fan Watch

#10Notre Dame Fighting Irish

6–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Notre Dame beat Navy. Playoff odds moved from 71% to 70%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Navy at Notre Dame
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NBC
playoff chanceEntering71%Win72%Loss22%
Navy
Navy 2%Notre Dame 98%
Notre Dame
Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.3-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Mississippi State won71% with the other result3.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 2
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Iowa won71% with the other result1.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Rooted for
LSU
at
Alabama
Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Projected ≈0.3 seed lines

Alabama won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection8% if LSU won6% with the other result1.9-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Missouri won5% with the other result2.2-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
46 other games had little impact
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Mississippi State, Iowa, LSU, Missouri.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.