🏈 Fan Watch

#24Notre Dame Fighting Irish

0–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
The Week 4 recap

Notre Dame beat Purdue. Playoff odds moved from 73% to 61%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Purdue at Notre Dame
…
…
NBC
playoff chanceEntering73%Win73%Loss39%
Purdue
Purdue <1%Notre Dame >99%
Notre Dame
Final · Purdue 30–56 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 1
Rooted for
Sam Houston
at
Texas
Final · Sam Houston 0–55 TexasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection76% if Sam Houston won73% with the other result2.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
Tulane
at
Ole Miss
Final · Tulane 10–45 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Tulane won73% with the other result2.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 3
Rooted for
Kent State
at
Florida State
Final · Kent State 10–66 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point first-round-bye boost

Florida State won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if Kent State won12% with the other result2.4-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
46 other games had little impact
Auburn at Oklahoma · ABC
Florida at Miami · ABC
Arkansas at Memphis · ABC
Rice at Charlotte · ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State · ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers · FOX
Maryland at Wisconsin · NBC
Syracuse at Clemson · ESPN
SMU at TCU · ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville · ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah · FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) · ESPNU
North Texas at Army · CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee · SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon · BTN
Michigan at Nebraska · CBS
North Carolina at UCF · FOX
Ball State at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty · ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan · ESPN+
NC State at Duke · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech · The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas · FS1
Delaware at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri · ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force · CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama · ESPN+
Georgia State at Vanderbilt · ESPNU
Washington at Washington State · CBS
Illinois at Indiana · NBC
Stanford at Virginia · ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor · FOX
BYU at East Carolina · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP · ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State · FS1
Wyoming at Colorado · ESPN
California at San Diego State · CBSSN
Michigan State at USC · FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Sam Houston, Tulane, Kent State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.