The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
10 teams on the bubble entering week 4.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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1
Penn State3–0100%
Penn State3–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
→
4
Oregon3–0>99%
Oregon3–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Georgia3–0>99%
Georgia3–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
→
2
Ohio State3–0100%
Ohio State3–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country…
… · ESPN
Tulane at #13 Ole Miss
Final · Tulane 10–45 Ole Miss
81 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · FOX
25 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · NBC
#9 Illinois at #19 Indiana
Final · Illinois 10–63 Indiana
33 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma
Final · Auburn 17–24 Oklahoma
23 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN+
Sam Houston at #8 Texas
Final · Sam Houston 0–55 Texas
45 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · FOX
Arizona State at Baylor
Final · Arizona State 27–24 Baylor
28 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
Florida at #4 Miami
Final · Florida 7–26 Miami
23 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
Arkansas at Memphis
Final · Arkansas 31–32 Memphis
21 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · CBSSN
North Texas at Army
Final · North Texas 45–38 Army
24 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · CBS
#21 Michigan at Nebraska
Final · Michigan 30–27 Nebraska
11 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4).