The CFP race

8Alabama2–144%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Notre Dame0–273%

→

1Penn State3–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon3–081%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Indiana3–025%

→

4Miami3–072%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas2–158%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Texas A&M3–026%

→

3Georgia3–091%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7LSU3–053%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Ole Miss3–046%

→

2Ohio State3–097%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon3–0 · Big Ten▼ −8pp81%

#24Notre Dame0–2 · FBS Independents▼ −24pp73%

#4Miami3–0 · ACC▲ +18pp72%

#8Texas2–1 · SEC▼ −11pp58%

#3LSU3–0 · SEC▼ −3pp53%

#13Ole Miss3–0 · SEC▲ +5pp46%

#14Alabama2–1 · SEC▲ +6pp44%

#10Texas A&M3–0 · SEC▲ +16pp26%

#19Indiana3–0 · Big Ten▲ +4pp25%

#9Illinois3–0 · Big Ten▲ +6pp23%

#11Oklahoma3–0 · SEC▲ +14pp22%

#21Michigan2–1 · Big Ten▲ +12pp21%

Arizona State2–1 · Big 12▲ +6pp20%

#15Tennessee2–1 · SEC▼ −1pp20%

#25USC3–0 · Big Ten▼ −5pp19%

TCU2–0 · Big 12▲ +1pp19%

Memphis3–0 · American Athletic▲ +6pp19%

Louisville2–0 · ACC▼ −2pp17%

UNLV3–0 · Mountain West▲ +1pp15%

…

… · NBC

#9Illinoisat#19Indiana

Final · Illinois 10–63 Indiana

…

… · FOX

#17Texas Techat#16Utah

Final · Texas Tech 34–10 Utah

…

… · ABC

#22Auburnat#11Oklahoma

Final · Auburn 17–24 Oklahoma

…

… · NBC

Purdueat#24Notre Dame

Final · Purdue 30–56 Notre Dame

…

… · CBS

#21MichiganatNebraska

Final · Michigan 30–27 Nebraska

…

… · ESPN

Tulaneat#13Ole Miss

Final · Tulane 10–45 Ole Miss

…

… · ABC

Floridaat#4Miami

Final · Florida 7–26 Miami

…

… · FOX

Arizona StateatBaylor

Final · Arizona State 27–24 Baylor

…

… · ESPN+

Sam Houstonat#8Texas

Final · Sam Houston 0–55 Texas

…

… · ABC

ArkansasatMemphis

Final · Arkansas 31–32 Memphis

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.