๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

TCU Horned Frogs

2โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 4 ยท 2025
The Week 4 recap

TCU beat SMU. Playoff odds moved from 19% to 17%.

Your game

SMU at TCU
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playoff chanceEntering19%Win21%Loss15%
SMU
SMU 37%TCU 63%
TCU
Final ยท SMU 24โ€“35 TCUWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result TCU wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
West Virginia
at
Kansas
Final ยท West Virginia 10โ€“41 KansasWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.4-point title-game boost

Kansas won instead, so TCU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if West Virginia won31% with the other result3.4-point differenceTCU Big 12 title-game chance
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Impact 2
Arizona State
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final ยท Arizona State 27โ€“24 BaylorWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Arizona State won instead, so TCU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Baylor won18% with the other result1.8-point differenceTCU playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
Rice at Charlotte ยท ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers ยท FOX
Arkansas at Memphis ยท ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin ยท NBC
Syracuse at Clemson ยท ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah ยท FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) ยท ESPNU
North Texas at Army ยท CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon ยท BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Michigan at Nebraska ยท CBS
Purdue at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kent State at Florida State ยท ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF ยท FOX
Ball State at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
NC State at Duke ยท ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech ยท The CW Network
Delaware at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri ยท ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Florida at Miami ยท ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt ยท ESPNU
Washington at Washington State ยท CBS
Illinois at Indiana ยท NBC
Stanford at Virginia ยท ACC Network
BYU at East Carolina ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Texas ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP ยท ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Colorado ยท ESPN
California at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Michigan State at USC ยท FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:TCU, then West Virginia, Baylor.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.