๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#24TCU Horned Frogs

3โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

TCU lost to Arizona State. Playoff odds moved from 17% to 11%.

Your game

TCU at Arizona State
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Big 12 title-game chanceEntering29%Win48%Loss16%
TCU
TCU 41%Arizona State 59%
Arizona State
Final ยท TCU 24โ€“27 Arizona StateWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result TCU wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Rooted for
Cincinnati
at
Kansas
Final ยท Cincinnati 37โ€“34 KansasWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.6-point title-game boost

Kansas lost, improving TCU's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection32% if Cincinnati won28% with the other result3.6-point differenceTCU Big 12 title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Utah
at
Rooted for
West Virginia
Final ยท Utah 48โ€“14 West VirginiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Utah won instead, so TCU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if West Virginia won28% with the other result2-point differenceTCU Big 12 title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
The rooting list was:TCU, then Cincinnati, West Virginia.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.