The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12Texas Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.7–2.3 | 43% | 24% | 24% |
 Arizona State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.4–2.6 | 37% | 19% | 19% |
 Kansas | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.1–2.9 | 23% | 11% | 11% |
 #14Iowa State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 14% | 6% | 6% |
 Houston | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.3–4.7 | 6% | 3% | 3% |
 Colorado | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.0–5.0 | 4% | 2% | 2% |
 Utah | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.0–5.0 | 4% | 2% | 2% |
 Baylor | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.6–4.4 | 4% | 1% | 1% |
 West Virginia | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.7–7.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #24TCU | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 30% | 16% | 16% |
 #25BYU | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.7–3.3 | 22% | 12% | 12% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 7% | 3% | 3% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.7–5.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.2–5.8 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 0.9–8.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5).