๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#12Texas Tech Red Raiders

4โ€“0 ยท 1โ€“0 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Texas Tech was off. Playoff odds moved from 32% to 31%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas Tech wanted
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Impact 1
Baylor
at
Rooted for
Oklahoma State
Final ยท Baylor 45โ€“27 Oklahoma StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Baylor won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Oklahoma State won31% with the other result1.6-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Cincinnati
at
Kansas
Final ยท Cincinnati 37โ€“34 KansasWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

Kansas lost, improving Texas Tech's place in the Big 12 standings.

Entering-week projection45% if Cincinnati won43% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas Tech Big 12 title-game chance
49 other games had little impact
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
The rooting list was:Texas Tech is off, then Oklahoma State, Cincinnati.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.