🏈 Fan Watch

#8Texas Tech Red Raiders

8–1 · 5–1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Texas Tech beat BYU. Playoff odds moved from 69% to 81%.

Your game

BYU at Texas Tech
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering69%Win77%Loss36%
BYU
BYU 19%Texas Tech 81%
Texas Tech
Final · BYU 7–29 Texas TechWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas Tech wanted
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NBC
Impact 1
Rooted for
Navy
at
Notre Dame
Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection74% if Navy won69% with the other result4.8-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Mississippi State won69% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.2-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Missouri won15% with the other result4.2-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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FOX
Impact 4
Rooted for
Iowa State
at
TCU
Final · Iowa State 20–17 TCUWish granted ✓
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Iowa State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas Tech's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection71% if Iowa State won69% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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TNT
Impact 5
Colorado
at
Rooted for
West Virginia
Final · Colorado 22–29 West VirginiaWish granted ✓
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

West Virginia won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 14 game against Texas Tech.

Entering-week projection70% if West Virginia won68% with the other result2-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 6
Rooted for
LSU
at
Alabama
Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point first-round-bye boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if LSU won17% with the other result3.1-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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ESPN+
Impact 7
Charlotte
at
Rooted for
East Carolina
Final · Charlotte 22–48 East CarolinaWish granted ✓
Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

East Carolina won, helping protect Texas Tech's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection17% if East Carolina won14% with the other result2.9-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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FOX
Impact 8
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Penn State
Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Penn State won16% with the other result2.9-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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CBS
Impact 9
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Iowa won69% with the other result1.3-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
41 other games had little impact
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Houston at UCF · FS1
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Texas Tech, then Navy, Mississippi State, Missouri, Iowa State, West Virginia, LSU, East Carolina, Penn State, Iowa.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.