๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#6Texas Tech Red Raiders

9โ€“1 ยท 6โ€“1 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Texas Tech beat UCF. Playoff odds moved from 81% to 93%.

Your game

UCF at Texas Tech
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playoff chanceEntering81%Win83%Loss56%
UCF
UCF 6%Texas Tech 94%
Texas Tech
Final ยท UCF 9โ€“48 Texas TechWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas Tech wanted
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Impact 1
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final ยท Utah 55โ€“28 BaylorWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.5-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection85% if Baylor won80% with the other result5.5-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท South Carolina 30โ€“31 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 4.5-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if South Carolina won25% with the other result4.5-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final ยท Florida 24โ€“34 Ole MissWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection83% if Florida won81% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
West Virginia
at
Arizona State
Final ยท West Virginia 23โ€“25 Arizona StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Arizona State won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection83% if West Virginia won81% with the other result2-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
Oklahoma
at
Alabama
Final ยท Oklahoma 23โ€“21 AlabamaWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.8-point first-round-bye boost

Oklahoma won, helping protect Texas Tech's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection28% if Oklahoma won25% with the other result2.8-point differenceTexas Tech first-round bye chance
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Impact 6
Kent State
at
Rooted for
Akron
Final ยท Kent State 42โ€“35 AkronWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Kent State won instead, so Texas Tech did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection81% if Akron won80% with the other result1.2-point differenceTexas Tech playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Texas Tech, then Baylor, South Carolina, Florida, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Akron.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.