The CFP race

8LSU4–057%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Ole Miss4–061%

→

1Penn State3–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon4–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Memphis4–031%

→

4Miami4–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas3–173%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame1–274%

→

3Georgia3–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Indiana4–082%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Oklahoma4–043%

→

2Ohio State3–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#11Indiana4–0 · Big Ten▲ +70pp82%

#22Notre Dame1–2 · FBS Independents▼ −24pp74%

#10Texas3–1 · SEC▼ −10pp73%

#13Ole Miss4–0 · SEC▲ +2pp61%

#4LSU4–0 · SEC▼ −30pp57%

#7Oklahoma4–0 · SEC▲ +29pp43%

Memphis4–0 · American Athletic▲ +3pp31%

#9Texas A&M3–0 · SEC▲ +6pp29%

#12Texas Tech4–0 · Big 12▲ +12pp24%

Arizona State3–1 · Big 12▼ −1pp19%

Louisville3–0 · ACC▲ +3pp19%

James Madison2–1 · Sun Belt▲ +12pp19%

#17Alabama2–1 · SEC▼ −29pp16%

#24TCU3–0 · Big 12▼ −2pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5).