🏈 Fan Watch

#13Ole Miss Rebels

4–0 · 2–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
The Week 5 recap

Ole Miss beat LSU. Playoff odds moved from 52% to 82%.

Your game

LSU at Ole Miss
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering52%Win56%Loss27%
LSU
LSU 15%Ole Miss 85%
Ole Miss
Final · LSU 19–24 Ole MissWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Ole Miss wanted
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SEC Network
Impact 1
Tennessee
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Tennessee 41–34 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

Tennessee won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Mississippi State won51% with the other result3.5-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Georgia
Final · Alabama 24–21 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if Georgia won50% with the other result2.6-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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Peacock
Impact 3
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection53% if Iowa won51% with the other result2.3-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Florida State
at
Rooted for
Virginia
Final · Florida State 38–46 VirginiaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Virginia won, thinning out the at-large competition for Ole Miss's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection52% if Virginia won51% with the other result1.7-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 5
USC
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final · USC 32–34 IllinoisWish granted ✓
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Illinois won, thinning out the at-large competition for Ole Miss's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection53% if Illinois won51% with the other result1.6-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 6
Kentucky
at
Rooted for
South Carolina
Final · Kentucky 13–35 South CarolinaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Kentucky lost again, helping keep them behind Ole Miss.

Entering-week projection52% if South Carolina won51% with the other result1.5-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 7
Louisville
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Louisville 34–27 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Louisville won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection53% if Pittsburgh won51% with the other result1.5-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance
43 other games had little impact
Auburn at Texas A&M · ESPN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas · ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
The rooting list was:Ole Miss, then Mississippi State, Georgia, Iowa, Virginia, Illinois, South Carolina, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.