#7Ole Miss Rebels

9–1 · 5–1 SEC

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Ole Miss beat Florida. Playoff odds moved from 74% to 77%.

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ESPN

playoff chanceEntering74%Win77%Loss26%

Florida

Florida 6%Ole Miss 94%

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ABC

Impact 1

Rooted for

Texas

at

Georgia

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 31.9-point title-game boost

Georgia won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Texas won3% with the other result32-point differenceOle Miss SEC title-game chance

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ABC

Impact 2

Rooted for

Oklahoma

at

Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓

Projected 6.8-point title-game boost

Alabama lost, improving Ole Miss's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection17% if Oklahoma won10% with the other result6.8-point differenceOle Miss SEC title-game chance

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FOX

Impact 3

Rooted for

Minnesota

at

Oregon

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.2-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Minnesota won74% with the other result4.2-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.1-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection77% if Pittsburgh won73% with the other result4.1-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 5

Utah

at

Rooted for

Baylor

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection76% if Baylor won73% with the other result3.2-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

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SEC Network

Impact 6

Rooted for

Mississippi State

at

Missouri

Final · Mississippi State 27–49 MissouriWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Missouri won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection76% if Mississippi State won73% with the other result2.7-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 7

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.7-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection15% if South Carolina won11% with the other result3.7-point differenceOle Miss first-round bye chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Rooted for

TCU

at

BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if TCU won73% with the other result2-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 9

Michigan

at

Rooted for

Northwestern

Final · Michigan 24–22 NorthwesternWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Michigan won instead, so Ole Miss did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Northwestern won73% with the other result1.5-point differenceOle Miss playoff chance

48 other games had little impact

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

NC State at Miami · ESPN

UCF at Texas Tech · FOX

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.