The CFP race

8Ole Miss1–053%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Texas0–160%

→

1Penn State1–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Miami1–051%

First round · at the 5 seed

12USC1–025%

→

4Notre Dame0–197%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6LSU1–058%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Arizona State1–024%

→

3Georgia1–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon1–060%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Clemson0–128%

→

2Ohio State1–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon1–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp60%

#7Texas0–1 · SEC▼ −28pp60%

#3LSU1–0 · SEC▲ +34pp58%

#20Ole Miss1–0 · SEC▼ −2pp53%

#5Miami1–0 · ACC▲ +16pp51%

#8Clemson0–1 · ACC▼ −10pp28%

USC1–0 · Big Ten▼ −2pp25%

#12Arizona State1–0 · Big 1224%

#10South Carolina1–0 · SEC▲ +5pp24%

#15Michigan1–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp24%

#17SMU1–0 · ACC23%

#22Tennessee1–0 · SEC22%

TCU1–0 · Big 1219%

#23Indiana1–0 · Big Ten▼ −4pp19%

Jacksonville State0–1 · Conference USA18%

#21Alabama0–1 · SEC▼ −16pp17%

Louisville1–0 · ACC17%

UNLV2–0 · Mountain West16%

Tulane1–0 · American Athletic16%

…

… · ABC

#15Michiganat#18Oklahoma

Final · Michigan 13–24 Oklahoma

…

… · ABC

#20Ole MissatKentucky

Final · Ole Miss 30–23 Kentucky

…

… · FOX

Iowaat#16Iowa State

Final · Iowa 13–16 Iowa State

…

… · ABC

San José Stateat#7Texas

Final · San José State 7–38 Texas

…

… · ESPN+

Louisiana Techat#3LSU

Final · Louisiana Tech 7–23 LSU

…

… · ESPN

#11IllinoisatDuke

Final · Illinois 45–19 Duke

…

… · CBS

Oklahoma Stateat#6Oregon

Final · Oklahoma State 3–69 Oregon

…

… · The CW Network

Baylorat#17SMU

Final · Baylor 48–45 SMU

…

… · SEC Network

South Floridaat#13Florida

Final · South Florida 18–16 Florida

…

… · ESPN2

#12Arizona StateatMississippi State

Final · Arizona State 20–24 Mississippi State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 2). How the model works.