The CFP race

8Miami5–157%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Georgia Tech7–043%

→

1Ohio State7–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon6–187%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Texas Tech6–144%

→

4Georgia6–189%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas A&M7–078%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame5–259%

→

3Alabama6–188%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss6–174%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Vanderbilt6–132%

→

2Indiana7–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#3Texas A&M7–0 · SEC▲ +14pp78%

#8Ole Miss6–1 · SEC▼ −6pp74%

#12Notre Dame5–2 · FBS Independents▼ −9pp59%

#9Miami5–1 · ACC▼ −27pp57%

#14Texas Tech6–1 · Big 12▼ −26pp44%

#7Georgia Tech7–0 · ACC▲ +31pp43%

#10Vanderbilt6–1 · SEC▲ +21pp32%

Boise State5–2 · Mountain West▲ +12pp29%

#18South Florida6–1 · American Athletic▲ +10pp27%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +14pp25%

#11BYU7–0 · Big 12▲ +7pp24%

SMU5–2 · ACC▲ +11pp22%

#19Louisville5–1 · ACC▲ +10pp18%

#13Oklahoma6–1 · SEC▲ +3pp18%

#17Tennessee5–2 · SEC▼ −13pp16%

#15Missouri6–1 · SEC▼ −3pp15%

…

… · ABC

#8Ole Missat#13Oklahoma

Final · Ole Miss 34–26 Oklahoma

…

… · ESPN

#15Missouriat#10Vanderbilt

Final · Missouri 10–17 Vanderbilt

…

… · ABC

#3Texas A&Mat#20LSU

Final · Texas A&M 49–25 LSU

…

… · ESPN2

#18South FloridaatMemphis

Final · South Florida 31–34 Memphis

…

… · FOX

#11BYUatIowa State

Final · BYU 41–27 Iowa State

…

… · ESPN

Syracuseat#7Georgia Tech

Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia Tech

…

… · ESPNU

Oklahoma Stateat#14Texas Tech

Final · Oklahoma State 0–42 Texas Tech

…

… · ABC

#4AlabamaatSouth Carolina

Final · Alabama 29–22 South Carolina

…

… · ESPN

Stanfordat#9Miami

Final · Stanford 7–42 Miami

…

… · SEC Network

#17TennesseeatKentucky

Final · Tennessee 56–34 Kentucky

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.