🏈 Fan Watch

#12Notre Dame Fighting Irish

5–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
The Week 9 recap

Notre Dame was off. Playoff odds moved from 59% to 71%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
Georgia Tech
Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Syracuse won59% with the other result2.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 2
Texas
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Texas 45–38 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Mississippi State won59% with the other result2.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
LSU
Final · Texas A&M 49–25 LSUWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if LSU won59% with the other result1.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN+
Impact 4
Rooted for
UConn
at
Rice
Final · UConn 34–37 RiceWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Rice won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if UConn won58% with the other result1.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 5
Tennessee
at
Rooted for
Kentucky
Final · Tennessee 56–34 KentuckyWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Tennessee won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Kentucky won59% with the other result1.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN+
Impact 6
Rooted for
Louisiana
at
Troy
Final · Louisiana 23–35 TroyWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Troy won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Louisiana won59% with the other result1.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 7
Virginia
at
Rooted for
North Carolina
Final · Virginia 17–16 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if North Carolina won59% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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TV TBA
Impact 8
Utah State
at
Rooted for
New Mexico
Final · Utah State 14–33 New MexicoWish granted ✓
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

New Mexico won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection60% if New Mexico won59% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 9
BYU
at
Rooted for
Iowa State
Final · BYU 41–27 Iowa StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection60% if Iowa State won59% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
44 other games had little impact
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
SMU at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network
NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1
Stanford at Miami · ESPN
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN
The rooting list was:Notre Dame is off, then Syracuse, Mississippi State, LSU, UConn, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Mexico, Iowa State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.